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000
FXXX12 KWNP 160031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3639 (N30E48,
Eai/beta-gamma) produced an M4.0 (R1-Minor) flare at 15/1932 UTC, the
strongest of the period. Development and growth was observed in Region
3639, Region 3643 (S10E63, Dai/beta), Region 3638 (S17E44, Cao/beta),
Region 3637 (S12E39, Bxo/beta), and Region 3634 (N25W42, Ehi/beta).
Low-level M-class (R1) activity was also observed from Region 3634. The
remaining seven numbered active regions were either mostly stable or in
decay.

A faint CME was observed off the NE limb at 14/1124 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery. Analysis of this event suggests an Earth-directed component
could interact with Earth late on 17 through 18 Apr.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is forecast to be moderate, with M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely over 16-18 Apr.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels, and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue
at normal to moderate levels through 18 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters became weakly enhanced after 15/1725 UTC and
suggested the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 12 Apr. Total
magnetic field strength increased from 5 nT to a peak of 10 nT. The Bz
component reached as far southward as -8 nT. Solar wind speeds only
increased from ~330 km/s to ~375 km/s.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to continue at enhanced levels on 16
Apr. Solar wind parameters are expected to trend towards nominal levels
over 16-17 Apr. Over late on 17 Apr and into 18 Apr, additional
enhancements are expected due to the anticipated arrival CMEs that left
the Sun on 14 and 15 Apr.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach unsettled to active conditions
on 16 Apr due to the passage of a CME from 12 Apr. Additional unsettled
to active conditions are likely over on 17-18 Apr due to the anticipated
influence of CMEs that left the Sun on 14 and 15 Apr.