Text Products for FWS Issued by DLH

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
000
FNUS73 KDLH 221127
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Island Lake Permanent Opening...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
627 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on April 22.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Partly cloudy skies through high clouds early this morning will
increase and become mostly cloudy this afternoon. Mixing heights
at ignition time will be around 2400 ft, but increase to around
4800 ft this afternoon. The deeper mixing is expected to occur
later this morning through the early afternoon leading to min RH
around 33 percent, but min RH could drop to as low as 30 percent
today before recovering later this afternoon. This is due to
scattered to widespread light rain showers (30 percent chance)
arriving this afternoon. Expect light southerly winds early this
morning to become southwesterly and breezy late this morning
through mid afternoon ahead of an approaching weak cold front. 20
ft wind gusts increase to 15 to 18 mph before weakening and
turning light late this afternoon and evening. Smoke dispersal
starts out fair early this morning before improving to excellent
this afternoon. Expect winds to shift to westerly after 1800 this
evening as the cold front moves through. Expect a brief break in
the rain showers this evening into tonight following the cold
frontal passage. Winds shifting to north-northeast on Tuesday as
an Alberta Clipper system moves into the area.

Scattered rain showers (20 to 30 percent chance) will continue on
Tuesday, ending Tuesday afternoon. North-northeast gusts reach to
15-19 mph, with min RH dropping to 40 percent in the afternoon
due to precipitation ending in the afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the afternoon. Chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon, then slight
                    chance of rain showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL increasing to 4800 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 22 mph shifting to the southwest 21
                    to 23 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (5600-22100 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (75900-91600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH CHC SCH
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10  20  20  30  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............39  41  48  52  56  59  60  61  61  61  60
RH..............55  50  40  38  35  33  33  33  35  36  37
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   10  11  11  11  11  10  9   8
20 FT wind gust.14  14  15  16  18  18  18  18  16  15  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.4 3.1 3.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.13  14  20  20  21  22  23  22  22  21  21
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10006   8   22  31  43  59  77  89  92  87  76

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the evening. Chance of rain
                    showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL decreasing to 700 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (39900 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to fair
                    (3100-17400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....S CHC         S CHC         S CHC  CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   RNSHWR NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20     10     20     10     20     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............58     53     48     46     44     41
RH..............42     50     58     60     62     73
20 ft wind......W 7    W 5    W 5    W 5    W 5    W 5
20 ft wind gust.13     11     9      9      9      9
Mix hgt (ft)....3100   400    500    500    500    600
Transport wind..W 15   SW 8   W 10   W 10   W 10   W 12
Haines index....4      5      5      5      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100040     3      4      5      5      7

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning, then slight
                    chance of rain showers late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    north 10 to 13 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL increasing to 3900 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 17 mph shifting to the north 17
                    to 20 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (6400-21600 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (51400-61900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30     30     20     20     0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............39     41     45     46     47     48
RH..............82     82     73     60     49     42
20 ft wind......NW 5   NW 7   N 10   N 12   N 12   N 11
20 ft wind gust.9      13     16     19     18     15
Mix hgt (ft)....600    1300   1800   2300   3000   3900
Transport wind..NW 12  NW 16  N 17   N 18   N 20   N 18
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/10006      19     27     37     51     62

$$
Forecaster...Cory
Requested by...Michael Mackey
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411632.0/DLH
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.mackey@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
