Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 161935
SWODY1
SPC AC 161933

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are
forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas this
evening into tonight.

...20z Update...

Aside from trimming general thunderstorm probabilities from parts of
the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, no changes have been made
to the outlook. Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop this evening into tonight across parts of
south-central/southeast Texas, posing a risk of large hail and
strong gusts. See previous discussion below for more details.

..Leitman.. 03/16/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024/

...TX...
Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and
scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low
and mid level warm advection regime.  This trend will continue
through much of the day, limiting heating and overall
destabilization.  While most of the daytime activity will be
non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk
area capable of hail.

By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach
the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of
strong to severe storms.  This activity will spread across the Rio
Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level
warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity.
All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the
night.  While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep
mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote
supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and
damaging wind gusts.  Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours
into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds.

$$


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