Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS01 KWNS 161241
SWODY1
SPC AC 161240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are
forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today
into tonight.

...South TX through tonight...
A closed midlevel low will meander over AZ through tonight, while a
surface front remains quasi-stationary near the Gulf coast and
beneath the southern stream/subtropical jet.  Outflow with
convection yesterday and early this morning has complicated the
surface pattern, with the effective front extending from just off
the LA coast to near the TX coast.  The deeper baroclinic zone
appears to be a bit farther inland over south TX, and there will be
some potential for sharpening of the front later this afternoon with
surface heating in the wake of a morning MCS/wake low now moving off
the lower TX coast.

The details of convective initiation/evolution are unclear this
morning given the influence of the ongoing convection near the coast
and uncertainty regarding boundary locations.  Assuming sufficient
recovery inland over south TX, the approach of subtle speed maxima
within the subtropical jet atop weak frontal convergence could
support additional thunderstorm development late this afternoon into
tonight.  Other storms could also form in the weak upslope flow on
the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and move into south TX
tonight.  The northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and
boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 will contribute to MUCAPE of
1500-2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient deep-layer vertical
shear/hodograph length for supercells.  Large hail (1-2" diameter)
will be the main threat, though a cluster or two could persist
overnight with the potential to produce isolated wind damage.

..Thompson/Dean.. 03/16/2024

$$


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