731
ACUS01 KWNS 090144
SWODY1
SPC AC 090142

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0842 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
MO INTO WESTERN KY...WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...NORTHERN AL...FAR NORTHWEST
GA...

CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain likely this evening from parts of the
mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern
Plains.  All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail,
and potentially significant damaging winds are possible.  Some
tornadoes may be strong, especially this evening from far northern
Alabama into southeast Tennessee.

...Ozarks into the TN Valley and Carolinas...
Numerous strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from the
Ozark region east-southeastward through the TN Valley and Carolinas.
Convection has largely remained semi-discrete thus far,  but a
gradual transition to more of a linear or cluster mode (still with
embedded supercells) will be possible tonight. Very large hail and
tornadoes (possibly strong) will continue to be a threat with any
persistent supercells, with some increase in the damaging wind
threat possible if organized upscale growth occurs. Some severe
threat may spread eastward across areas of eastern TN into the
Carolinas that were affected by earlier severe storms.

With intense storms ongoing across southern MO and recent HRRR runs
depicting bow echo development across southeast MO, a portion of the
Moderate Risk has been maintained. Parts of the Enhanced and
Moderate Risks have also been expanded southeastward, with
regenerative supercell development possible this evening from
southern middle  and southeast TN into far northern AL. A small 15%
tornado area has been added in this area as well, due to the
potential for tornadic supercells into mid/late evening.

...ArkLaTex vicinity into central TX...
Isolated storms have developed along/ahead of a front from eastern
OK into north-central/northeast TX. Extreme instability and strong
deep-layer shear will support a threat of very large hail with any
sustained supercell, along with a risk for localized severe gusts.
The extreme instability and primarily supercell mode will also
support some tornado threat, even though low-level flow/shear is
generally modest across the region. Storm coverage and intensity
should diminish by late evening into the overnight, as MLCINH
gradually increases.

..Dean.. 05/09/2024

$$