Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 211952
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The previous forecast remains on track. Guidance consensus continues
to show solidly Elevated equivalent winds and RH to overspread
portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow afternoon. Still,
fuels appear too poorly receptive to support significant wildfire
spread, with fire weather highlights withheld this outlook. A dry
thunderstorm or two may also occur along portions of the central
High Plains tomorrow afternoon, where fuels are at least modestly
receptive to wildfire spread. However, confidence in storm coverage
to prompt more than a localized wildfire-spread threat via
lightning-induced ignitions is too low to introduce isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights at this time.

..Squitieri.. 04/21/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/

...Synopsis...
Along the southern periphery of a midlevel low tracking eastward
across southern Canada, a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow
will overspread the northern/central Plains into the Upper MS
Valley. At the same time, a cold front will move eastward across the
region. Behind the front, 20-30 mph sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds (with higher gusts) will overlap the northern edge of
low boundary-layer RH across eastern MT into the Dakotas. While this
may lead to localized fire-weather concerns, preceding rainfall atop
already marginal fuels for some areas, and uncertainty regarding RH
reductions, limit confidence in the fire-weather threat --
precluding Elevated highlights at this time.

Ahead of the front from the southern Plains into the Midwest, a
tight pressure gradient beneath a strong low-level jet will yield
20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards
of 35 mph). However, RH reductions generally appear marginal across
this corridor. Nevertheless, the strong/gusty winds may still
promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are
receptive to fire spread.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$
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