681
ACUS02 KWNS 110600
SWODY2
SPC AC 110559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Texas
Panhandle into central and southeast Texas and far southwest
Louisiana on Sunday.

...Southern Plains...
A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the
central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning,
accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from
northern Mexico through the southern Plains. This shortwave is
forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern
High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and
southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow
will also spread eastward through the Lower MS Valley and into the
Southeast.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX
Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into
east/southeast TX early Sunday morning, supported by persistent
warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This
area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread
northeastward throughout the day, with the associated cloudiness
limiting heating and destabilization. Some clearing is anticipated
west of this area of precipitation, with some modest low-level
moisture advection anticipated as well.

This will likely result in a narrow corridor airmass destabilization
between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from
the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible
within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale
ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level
convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will
likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, particularly
with southern extent, with large hail as the primary severe risk.
Additionally, there is a chance for some of the storms on the
southern edge of the warm-air advection shield to trend towards
becoming surface based during the evening as the surface dewpoints
climb into the low 70s. Southeasterly surface winds and interaction
with the warm front could support storms capable of damaging gusts
and perhaps even a brief tornado.

...Upper Michigan into the Upper Midwest...
A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are
forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An
attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through Upper
MI and the Upper Midwest. Temperatures across the region will likely
climb into the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, with dewpoints
likely mixing into the low 50s/upper 40s. Even with this limited
low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures will help support
modest buoyancy and the potential for isolated thunderstorms along
and ahead of the front. Weak vertical shear and the progressive
nature of the front should result in brief, more pulse-like storm
character with a limited severe potential.

..Mosier.. 05/11/2024

$$