917
ACUS02 KWNS 011732
SWODY2
SPC AC 011730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OK
INTO NORTHWEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible on Thursday from
parts of the upper Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A relatively deep upper-level trough will persist over the
western/central CONUS on Thursday. Within the broader cyclonic flow,
multiple embedded shortwaves will move east-northeastward, both
within the main belt of flow across the central Plains into the
upper Great Lakes, and also within a southern stream across TX. The
surface pattern will be complicated by widespread overnight into
morning convection, but in general, a cold front is forecast to be
aligned from southwest TX toward parts of the Midwest. One surface
wave may move from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes
region, while another weak surface low may persist across west TX.

While a rather broad and moist warm sector will support pockets of
severe potential on Thursday, uncertainty remains high due to
multiple rounds of extensive antecedent convection across the Great
Plains region.

...Southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley...
An MCS may be ongoing over east/southeast TX Thursday morning. Some
severe potential may accompany this system near the upper TX to LA
Gulf Coast, and perhaps as far east as the lower MS Valley.

In the wake of the morning MCS, an outflow boundary may extend
across into parts of central/north TX, while the cold front to the
north is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves southeastward
across parts of OK into northwest TX. A dryline is forecast to
extend into southwest TX. Depending on the magnitude of diurnal
heating and outflow modification, isolated to widely scattered storm
development will be possible near all of these boundaries during the
afternoon/evening. Modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will support
sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, especially
where low-level flow remains backed.

Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong
destabilization wherever stronger heating can occur. Isolated
supercell development will be possible initially, with a threat of
large hail (potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter) and
possibly a tornado. Depending on the extent of storm coverage,
modest upscale growth will be possible, with an attendant threat of
at least isolated damaging gusts.

A Slight Risk has been added from southwest OK into northwest TX,
where the best potential for strong diurnal destabilization is
currently expected, though uncertainty remains regarding storm
coverage in this area.

...Parts of MO into the upper MS Valley...
Uncertainty is high in this region as well, with some potential for
an MCS to be ongoing across parts of IA/MO/northwest IL during the
morning. An isolated damaging wind risk could accompany this system
in the morning, with some potential for redevelopment in its wake as
a weak surface wave moves toward the upper Great Lakes region.
Destabilization may be limited in the wake of morning convection,
but sufficient deep-layer shear and a moderate low-level jet will
support some potential for organized convection, and a couple
stronger cells/clusters could develop during the afternoon. While a
Marginal Risk has been maintained across this region, a corridor of
somewhat greater severe potential could evolve Thursday afternoon,
depending on the evolution of morning convection and recovery in its
wake.

..Dean.. 05/01/2024

$$