Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
139 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...Final 2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook...

This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River,
Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and
northern Missouri.

...Below normal flood potential through mid-June along the Missouri
River from the Iowa border through Boonville...

...Tributaries which typically flood during the spring months will
likely experience minor to moderate flooding...

Outlook:

Through mid-June, the probability of flooding along the Missouri
River from the Iowa border to Boonville is roughly 20 to 35 percent
lower than normal.

Spring minor flood probability values along the Missouri River from
the Iowa border downstream to Atchison, Kansas range from 30 to 40
percent. The stretch of the river from Leavenworth, Kansas through
Kansas City has a 10 to 20 percent chance of minor flooding through
mid-June. Further downstream, Napoleon through Boonville show
probabilities of exceeding flood stage ranging from 50 to 60 percent.

Minor flooding is likely across tributary creeks and rivers which
typically experience flooding each spring. In addition, the
following basins have greater than or equal to 50 percent
probability of reaching moderate flood category: Upper Stranger,
Crooked, Grand from Chillicothe through Sumner, Blackwater, and Big.
All of these basins frequently experience moderate flooding each
spring.

Recent Conditions:

During the past 30 days, precipitation amounts were in excess of
150 percent of normal along and roughly 40 miles north of a line
from Leavenworth, Kansas to Carrollton and Glasgow, Missouri.
Otherwise, the remainder of the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA
received mainly below normal precipitation. Over the previous 90-day
period, the majority of the local region observed above normal
precipitation with many areas reporting amounts 125 to 200 percent
of normal.

30-day mean temperature values ranged around 40 across far northern
Missouri to the middle 40s from east-central Kansas into central
Missouri. These values were 6 to 10 degrees above normal.  For the
past 90-Day period, mean temperatures were also above normal with
values ranging 3 to 7 degrees warmer than average.

Present Conditions:

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates 98 percent of the Kansas
City/Pleasant Hill HSA is experiencing at least abnormally dry
conditions. In addition, around 50 percent of the HSA is affected by
moderate drought. Looking at the entire Missouri Basin, around 65
percent of the basin is experiencing at least abnormally dry
conditions with roughly 25 percent reporting at least moderate
drought, and 7 percent severe drought.

No snow cover is present across the local area or Plains region.
In addition, below normal snowpack continues across mountainous
areas of the upper Missouri Basin.

7-Day streamflow values across the local region indicated below
normal streamflow conditions continued across much of far
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. Recent rainfall brought
above normal conditions to the Marias Des Cygnes basin, and normal
streamflow to the Blue and Osage basins.

Future Conditions:

7-Day forecast precipitation amounts are expected to be less than a
quarter inch. The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a
pattern favoring normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear signal
regarding temperature for the local area. The greatest likelihood of
above normal temperatures will be across the northern third of the
United States. The precipitation outlook slightly favors above
normal amounts across the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA.

This is the final Spring Flood Outlook for 2024.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/16/2024  - 06/14/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Delaware River
Muscotah            27.0   28.0   36.0 :  36   40   24   36   <5   <5
:Stranger Creek
Easton              17.0   18.0   23.0 :  74   90   68   77    9    9
Tonganoxie          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  47   67   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
De Soto             26.0   33.0   36.0 :   5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Turner Bridge KCK   41.0   47.5   54.0 :   5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
23rd Street KCK     33.0   54.0   55.0 :  22   33   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Missouri River
St Joseph           17.0   21.0   27.0 :  38   73   20   52    7   14
Atchison            22.0   27.0   30.0 :  31   66   12   26    7   18
Leavenworth         20.0   24.0   30.0 :  24   60   11   23   <5    9
Parkville           25.0   28.0   35.0 :  15   43    9   22   <5    8
Kansas City         32.0   35.0   49.0 :   9   20    6   12   <5   <5
Napoleon            17.0   25.0   30.0 :  52   80   20   33    5   10
Waverly             20.0   29.0   31.0 :  59   80   15   25    6   12
Miami               18.0   28.0   29.0 :  60   81   15   29   10   15
Glasgow             25.0   27.0   32.0 :  59   79   48   75   15   34
Boonville           21.0   30.0   34.0 :  58   77   16   22   <5    9
:Tarkio River
Fairfax             17.0   18.0   25.0 :  55   81   48   79   42   51
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti   23.0   28.0   35.0 :   8   15   <5    5   <5   <5
:102 River
Maryville           18.0   23.0   28.0 :  23   43   12   18   <5   <5
Rosendale           18.0   18.1   23.0 :  25   52   25   52    7    8
:Platte River
Agency              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  67   88   37   62    5    7
:Little Platte River
Smithville          27.0   30.5   35.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Platte River
Sharps Station      26.0   29.0   33.0 :  48   72   38   62   10   27
Platte City         20.0   25.0   29.0 :  61   86   32   48    8   24
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev   35.0   39.0   48.0 :  30   33   10   11   <5   <5
Bannister Road Ka   34.0   40.0   42.0 :  17   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
71 Highway Kansas   27.0   36.0   38.0 :  22   24   <5   <5   <5   <5
63rd Street Kansa   26.0   33.0   37.0 :  24   26   <5    5   <5   <5
Colorado Avenue K   31.0   36.0   37.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Stadium Drive Kan   33.0   39.0   43.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
17th Street Kansa   33.0   36.0   38.0 :   8   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
12th Street Kansa   30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Blue River
Lake City           18.0   25.0   27.0 :  53   41   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Crooked River
Richmond            20.0   21.0   29.0 :  63   78   57   72   <5   <5
:Wakenda Creek
Carrollton          16.0   19.0   21.0 :  51   67   49   61   13   17
:Blackwater River
Valley City         22.0   25.0   31.0 :  67   93   61   84   22   29
Blue Lick           24.0   29.0   37.0 :  84   94   42   57   10   12
:Lamine River
Otterville          15.0   18.0   26.0 :  56   62   46   50   11   11
:Moniteau Creek
Fayette             16.0   21.0   25.0 :  72   81   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Petite Saline Creek
Boonville           16.0   19.5   26.0 :  54   64   48   51   <5   <5
:Thompson River
Trenton             27.0   31.0   34.0 :  35   45   19   20    7    8
:Grand River
Pattonsburg         25.0   30.0   32.0 :  44   69   27   58   22   43
Gallatin            26.0   33.0   39.0 :  48   70   11   21    7    8
Chillicothe         24.0   28.0   35.0 :  65   77   58   70   32   38
Sumner              26.0   28.0   40.0 :  77   84   74   82    9    9
Brunswick           19.0   27.0   33.0 :  62   79   21   26    9    9
:Chariton River
Novinger            20.0   23.0   26.0 :  35   39   26   27   16   20
Prairie Hill        15.0   19.0   21.0 :  58   74   32   34   17   17
:South Grand River
Urich               24.0   26.0   33.0 :  73   71   44   49   <5   <5
:Big Creek
Blairstown          20.0   23.0   36.0 :  96  >98   89   89   <5   <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie          28.0   45.0   48.0 :  47   47   <5   <5   <5   <5
La Cygne            25.0   30.0   36.0 :  59   66   37   43   <5   <5
Trading Post        27.0   29.0   40.0 :  49   50   33   43   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2024  - 06/14/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              4.7    6.2    9.8   20.1   27.9   29.0   30.8
:Stranger Creek
Easton                7.3   14.0   16.9   20.5   21.2   22.8   24.2
Tonganoxie            7.6   12.1   20.0   22.6   25.3   25.7   27.9
:Kansas River
De Soto               6.3    7.8   10.5   13.3   20.1   23.4   26.5
Turner Bridge KCK     6.3   11.6   13.4   19.6   30.0   35.2   40.5
23rd Street KCK      12.3   15.9   17.1   21.8   31.0   36.0   41.5
:Missouri River
St Joseph             7.0    7.5   11.1   15.5   19.7   24.5   28.3
Atchison              9.4   10.0   14.8   19.4   23.2   28.2   31.1
Leavenworth           4.1    4.7    9.1   14.7   19.8   24.9   29.2
Parkville             9.4   10.9   13.8   18.0   22.3   27.6   32.3
Kansas City          12.0   13.8   16.4   20.2   27.4   31.7   37.9
Napoleon              8.9   11.3   13.3   17.4   22.3   27.3   30.4
Waverly              12.5   15.1   17.0   21.3   24.8   30.4   31.4
Miami                 9.3   12.8   15.7   21.0   24.3   29.0   30.0
Glasgow              13.3   18.7   21.8   26.8   30.1   36.2   39.9
Boonville            10.4   14.4   17.6   23.3   26.6   32.9   33.7
:Tarkio River
Fairfax               8.3   10.3   12.2   17.6   27.0   28.6   29.4
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti     5.9    8.3   10.0   11.4   16.3   20.4   26.6
:102 River
Maryville             9.4   10.8   12.3   14.0   17.2   24.0   25.2
Rosendale             7.5   10.7   13.2   15.4   18.1   22.4   23.1
:Platte River
Agency               11.0   16.9   19.1   22.8   25.9   27.1   29.9
:Little Platte River
Smithville           13.5   14.0   14.5   16.9   20.0   21.5   26.2
:Platte River
Sharps Station       13.7   19.7   22.6   25.2   31.3   33.0   35.0
Platte City          10.9   16.7   18.9   20.5   25.4   28.0   31.3
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev    26.7   28.1   29.1   33.1   36.6   39.0   40.1
Bannister Road Ka     7.8    9.4   15.8   22.3   30.9   35.5   37.6
71 Highway Kansas     6.7    8.8   15.6   19.8   26.3   31.0   33.0
63rd Street Kansa    10.3   11.9   15.9   19.5   25.8   30.8   32.4
Colorado Avenue K     9.9   11.3   15.3   18.4   23.4   28.2   29.8
Stadium Drive Kan     8.9   10.6   15.5   21.4   27.4   30.9   32.6
17th Street Kansa    12.5   14.8   18.9   23.9   29.3   32.5   33.8
12th Street Kansa     8.5   10.6   14.0   18.0   24.8   27.7   29.0
:Little Blue River
Lake City             6.0    7.8   12.9   18.1   20.9   23.9   24.2
:Crooked River
Richmond              6.4   11.4   16.5   21.8   24.8   26.6   27.0
:Thompson River
Trenton              12.0   15.0   18.2   24.6   29.3   32.3   35.5
:Grand River
Pattonsburg           2.2    4.6    7.2   20.9   30.8   34.3   42.6
Gallatin              5.8    8.1   14.2   25.7   30.6   33.9   41.0
Chillicothe           7.3   11.8   18.0   29.6   38.1   40.4   41.3
Sumner               11.3   17.4   27.6   33.5   37.1   39.3   42.2
Brunswick             6.2   13.6   17.4   20.5   24.8   30.9   38.2
:Chariton River
Novinger              1.8    3.8   11.4   15.7   23.3   27.2   29.4
Prairie Hill          3.2    9.3   13.9   16.1   19.4   22.1   23.7
:South Grand River
Urich                11.7   17.8   24.1   25.8   28.3   28.8   31.0
:Big Creek
Blairstown           21.4   23.0   23.4   24.3   26.1   27.0   27.3
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie           16.0   18.7   21.9   26.4   34.6   36.7   38.3
La Cygne             10.5   13.7   20.6   27.9   32.8   33.5   34.0
Trading Post         11.7   15.1   21.6   26.8   34.9   37.7   38.5

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2024  - 06/14/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              2.2    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
:Stranger Creek
Easton                2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3
Tonganoxie            2.3    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2
:Kansas River
De Soto               3.9    3.9    3.8    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6
:Missouri River
St Joseph             2.8    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.6
Atchison              4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.3
Parkville             5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3
Kansas City           5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5
Napoleon              3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
Waverly               7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1
Miami                 3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2
Glasgow               7.0    7.0    7.0    7.0    7.0    7.0    7.0
Boonville             3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2
:Tarkio River
Fairfax               5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.5    5.5    5.4
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti     3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.8    3.8
:102 River
Maryville             6.3    6.3    6.2    6.2    6.1    6.1    6.0
Rosendale             3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:Platte River
Agency                5.8    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.6    5.6
:Little Platte River
Smithville           12.1   12.1   12.1   12.0   12.0   12.0   12.0
:Platte River
Sharps Station        4.4    4.2    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev    25.2   25.2   25.2   25.2   25.2   25.2   25.2
Bannister Road Ka     4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.3    4.3
71 Highway Kansas     2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4
63rd Street Kansa     5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.0    5.0    5.0
Colorado Avenue K     5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.5    5.5
Stadium Drive Kan     5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.5
17th Street Kansa     6.8    6.8    6.8    6.7    6.7    6.7    6.7
12th Street Kansa     2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1
:Little Blue River
Lake City             4.5    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.3    4.3    4.2
:Crooked River
Richmond              5.7    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.4    5.3    3.6
:Thompson River
Trenton               9.2    9.0    8.7    8.0    8.0    8.0    8.0
:Grand River
Pattonsburg           1.3    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0
Gallatin              3.1    2.9    2.8    2.2    2.0    2.0    2.0
Chillicothe           3.8    3.7    3.6    3.4    3.2    3.2    3.1
Sumner                6.4    6.3    6.1    5.7    5.4    5.3    5.2
:Chariton River
Prairie Hill          1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.1    1.1    1.0
:South Grand River
Urich                 3.1    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
:Big Creek
Blairstown            7.8    7.8    7.1    6.3    4.3    4.0    4.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie           12.0   12.0   12.0   12.0   12.0   12.0   12.0
La Cygne              4.8    4.6    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.2
Trading Post          4.8    4.4    4.4    4.2    4.2    4.1    3.9

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water
information.

$$

SAW


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