Flood Potential Outlook Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
000
FGUS73 KEAX 141842 CCA
ESFEAX
MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095-
101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-150000-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
139 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
...Final 2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook...
This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River,
Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and
northern Missouri.
...Below normal flood potential through mid-June along the Missouri
River from the Iowa border through Boonville...
...Tributaries which typically flood during the spring months will
likely experience minor to moderate flooding...
Outlook:
Through mid-June, the probability of flooding along the Missouri
River from the Iowa border to Boonville is roughly 20 to 35 percent
lower than normal.
Spring minor flood probability values along the Missouri River from
the Iowa border downstream to Atchison, Kansas range from 30 to 40
percent. The stretch of the river from Leavenworth, Kansas through
Kansas City has a 10 to 20 percent chance of minor flooding through
mid-June. Further downstream, Napoleon through Boonville show
probabilities of exceeding flood stage ranging from 50 to 60 percent.
Minor flooding is likely across tributary creeks and rivers which
typically experience flooding each spring. In addition, the
following basins have greater than or equal to 50 percent
probability of reaching moderate flood category: Upper Stranger,
Crooked, Grand from Chillicothe through Sumner, Blackwater, and Big.
All of these basins frequently experience moderate flooding each
spring.
Recent Conditions:
During the past 30 days, precipitation amounts were in excess of
150 percent of normal along and roughly 40 miles north of a line
from Leavenworth, Kansas to Carrollton and Glasgow, Missouri.
Otherwise, the remainder of the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA
received mainly below normal precipitation. Over the previous 90-day
period, the majority of the local region observed above normal
precipitation with many areas reporting amounts 125 to 200 percent
of normal.
30-day mean temperature values ranged around 40 across far northern
Missouri to the middle 40s from east-central Kansas into central
Missouri. These values were 6 to 10 degrees above normal. For the
past 90-Day period, mean temperatures were also above normal with
values ranging 3 to 7 degrees warmer than average.
Present Conditions:
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates 98 percent of the Kansas
City/Pleasant Hill HSA is experiencing at least abnormally dry
conditions. In addition, around 50 percent of the HSA is affected by
moderate drought. Looking at the entire Missouri Basin, around 65
percent of the basin is experiencing at least abnormally dry
conditions with roughly 25 percent reporting at least moderate
drought, and 7 percent severe drought.
No snow cover is present across the local area or Plains region.
In addition, below normal snowpack continues across mountainous
areas of the upper Missouri Basin.
7-Day streamflow values across the local region indicated below
normal streamflow conditions continued across much of far
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. Recent rainfall brought
above normal conditions to the Marias Des Cygnes basin, and normal
streamflow to the Blue and Osage basins.
Future Conditions:
7-Day forecast precipitation amounts are expected to be less than a
quarter inch. The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a
pattern favoring normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear signal
regarding temperature for the local area. The greatest likelihood of
above normal temperatures will be across the northern third of the
United States. The precipitation outlook slightly favors above
normal amounts across the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA.
This is the final Spring Flood Outlook for 2024.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Delaware River
Muscotah 27.0 28.0 36.0 : 36 40 24 36 <5 <5
:Stranger Creek
Easton 17.0 18.0 23.0 : 74 90 68 77 9 9
Tonganoxie 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 47 67 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
De Soto 26.0 33.0 36.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Turner Bridge KCK 41.0 47.5 54.0 : 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
23rd Street KCK 33.0 54.0 55.0 : 22 33 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Missouri River
St Joseph 17.0 21.0 27.0 : 38 73 20 52 7 14
Atchison 22.0 27.0 30.0 : 31 66 12 26 7 18
Leavenworth 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 24 60 11 23 <5 9
Parkville 25.0 28.0 35.0 : 15 43 9 22 <5 8
Kansas City 32.0 35.0 49.0 : 9 20 6 12 <5 <5
Napoleon 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 52 80 20 33 5 10
Waverly 20.0 29.0 31.0 : 59 80 15 25 6 12
Miami 18.0 28.0 29.0 : 60 81 15 29 10 15
Glasgow 25.0 27.0 32.0 : 59 79 48 75 15 34
Boonville 21.0 30.0 34.0 : 58 77 16 22 <5 9
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 17.0 18.0 25.0 : 55 81 48 79 42 51
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 23.0 28.0 35.0 : 8 15 <5 5 <5 <5
:102 River
Maryville 18.0 23.0 28.0 : 23 43 12 18 <5 <5
Rosendale 18.0 18.1 23.0 : 25 52 25 52 7 8
:Platte River
Agency 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 67 88 37 62 5 7
:Little Platte River
Smithville 27.0 30.5 35.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Platte River
Sharps Station 26.0 29.0 33.0 : 48 72 38 62 10 27
Platte City 20.0 25.0 29.0 : 61 86 32 48 8 24
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 35.0 39.0 48.0 : 30 33 10 11 <5 <5
Bannister Road Ka 34.0 40.0 42.0 : 17 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
71 Highway Kansas 27.0 36.0 38.0 : 22 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
63rd Street Kansa 26.0 33.0 37.0 : 24 26 <5 5 <5 <5
Colorado Avenue K 31.0 36.0 37.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Stadium Drive Kan 33.0 39.0 43.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
17th Street Kansa 33.0 36.0 38.0 : 8 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
12th Street Kansa 30.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Lake City 18.0 25.0 27.0 : 53 41 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Crooked River
Richmond 20.0 21.0 29.0 : 63 78 57 72 <5 <5
:Wakenda Creek
Carrollton 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 51 67 49 61 13 17
:Blackwater River
Valley City 22.0 25.0 31.0 : 67 93 61 84 22 29
Blue Lick 24.0 29.0 37.0 : 84 94 42 57 10 12
:Lamine River
Otterville 15.0 18.0 26.0 : 56 62 46 50 11 11
:Moniteau Creek
Fayette 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 72 81 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Petite Saline Creek
Boonville 16.0 19.5 26.0 : 54 64 48 51 <5 <5
:Thompson River
Trenton 27.0 31.0 34.0 : 35 45 19 20 7 8
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 25.0 30.0 32.0 : 44 69 27 58 22 43
Gallatin 26.0 33.0 39.0 : 48 70 11 21 7 8
Chillicothe 24.0 28.0 35.0 : 65 77 58 70 32 38
Sumner 26.0 28.0 40.0 : 77 84 74 82 9 9
Brunswick 19.0 27.0 33.0 : 62 79 21 26 9 9
:Chariton River
Novinger 20.0 23.0 26.0 : 35 39 26 27 16 20
Prairie Hill 15.0 19.0 21.0 : 58 74 32 34 17 17
:South Grand River
Urich 24.0 26.0 33.0 : 73 71 44 49 <5 <5
:Big Creek
Blairstown 20.0 23.0 36.0 : 96 >98 89 89 <5 <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 28.0 45.0 48.0 : 47 47 <5 <5 <5 <5
La Cygne 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 59 66 37 43 <5 <5
Trading Post 27.0 29.0 40.0 : 49 50 33 43 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah 4.7 6.2 9.8 20.1 27.9 29.0 30.8
:Stranger Creek
Easton 7.3 14.0 16.9 20.5 21.2 22.8 24.2
Tonganoxie 7.6 12.1 20.0 22.6 25.3 25.7 27.9
:Kansas River
De Soto 6.3 7.8 10.5 13.3 20.1 23.4 26.5
Turner Bridge KCK 6.3 11.6 13.4 19.6 30.0 35.2 40.5
23rd Street KCK 12.3 15.9 17.1 21.8 31.0 36.0 41.5
:Missouri River
St Joseph 7.0 7.5 11.1 15.5 19.7 24.5 28.3
Atchison 9.4 10.0 14.8 19.4 23.2 28.2 31.1
Leavenworth 4.1 4.7 9.1 14.7 19.8 24.9 29.2
Parkville 9.4 10.9 13.8 18.0 22.3 27.6 32.3
Kansas City 12.0 13.8 16.4 20.2 27.4 31.7 37.9
Napoleon 8.9 11.3 13.3 17.4 22.3 27.3 30.4
Waverly 12.5 15.1 17.0 21.3 24.8 30.4 31.4
Miami 9.3 12.8 15.7 21.0 24.3 29.0 30.0
Glasgow 13.3 18.7 21.8 26.8 30.1 36.2 39.9
Boonville 10.4 14.4 17.6 23.3 26.6 32.9 33.7
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 8.3 10.3 12.2 17.6 27.0 28.6 29.4
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 5.9 8.3 10.0 11.4 16.3 20.4 26.6
:102 River
Maryville 9.4 10.8 12.3 14.0 17.2 24.0 25.2
Rosendale 7.5 10.7 13.2 15.4 18.1 22.4 23.1
:Platte River
Agency 11.0 16.9 19.1 22.8 25.9 27.1 29.9
:Little Platte River
Smithville 13.5 14.0 14.5 16.9 20.0 21.5 26.2
:Platte River
Sharps Station 13.7 19.7 22.6 25.2 31.3 33.0 35.0
Platte City 10.9 16.7 18.9 20.5 25.4 28.0 31.3
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 26.7 28.1 29.1 33.1 36.6 39.0 40.1
Bannister Road Ka 7.8 9.4 15.8 22.3 30.9 35.5 37.6
71 Highway Kansas 6.7 8.8 15.6 19.8 26.3 31.0 33.0
63rd Street Kansa 10.3 11.9 15.9 19.5 25.8 30.8 32.4
Colorado Avenue K 9.9 11.3 15.3 18.4 23.4 28.2 29.8
Stadium Drive Kan 8.9 10.6 15.5 21.4 27.4 30.9 32.6
17th Street Kansa 12.5 14.8 18.9 23.9 29.3 32.5 33.8
12th Street Kansa 8.5 10.6 14.0 18.0 24.8 27.7 29.0
:Little Blue River
Lake City 6.0 7.8 12.9 18.1 20.9 23.9 24.2
:Crooked River
Richmond 6.4 11.4 16.5 21.8 24.8 26.6 27.0
:Thompson River
Trenton 12.0 15.0 18.2 24.6 29.3 32.3 35.5
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 2.2 4.6 7.2 20.9 30.8 34.3 42.6
Gallatin 5.8 8.1 14.2 25.7 30.6 33.9 41.0
Chillicothe 7.3 11.8 18.0 29.6 38.1 40.4 41.3
Sumner 11.3 17.4 27.6 33.5 37.1 39.3 42.2
Brunswick 6.2 13.6 17.4 20.5 24.8 30.9 38.2
:Chariton River
Novinger 1.8 3.8 11.4 15.7 23.3 27.2 29.4
Prairie Hill 3.2 9.3 13.9 16.1 19.4 22.1 23.7
:South Grand River
Urich 11.7 17.8 24.1 25.8 28.3 28.8 31.0
:Big Creek
Blairstown 21.4 23.0 23.4 24.3 26.1 27.0 27.3
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 16.0 18.7 21.9 26.4 34.6 36.7 38.3
La Cygne 10.5 13.7 20.6 27.9 32.8 33.5 34.0
Trading Post 11.7 15.1 21.6 26.8 34.9 37.7 38.5
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:Stranger Creek
Easton 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Tonganoxie 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
:Kansas River
De Soto 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6
:Missouri River
St Joseph 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6
Atchison 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3
Parkville 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
Kansas City 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
Napoleon 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Waverly 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1
Miami 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
Glasgow 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Boonville 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8
:102 River
Maryville 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0
Rosendale 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Platte River
Agency 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6
:Little Platte River
Smithville 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
:Platte River
Sharps Station 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2
Bannister Road Ka 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3
71 Highway Kansas 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
63rd Street Kansa 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0
Colorado Avenue K 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5
Stadium Drive Kan 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5
17th Street Kansa 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7
12th Street Kansa 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
:Little Blue River
Lake City 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2
:Crooked River
Richmond 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 3.6
:Thompson River
Trenton 9.2 9.0 8.7 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Gallatin 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0
Chillicothe 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1
Sumner 6.4 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.2
:Chariton River
Prairie Hill 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0
:South Grand River
Urich 3.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:Big Creek
Blairstown 7.8 7.8 7.1 6.3 4.3 4.0 4.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
La Cygne 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2
Trading Post 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.9
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water
information.
$$
SAW