642
AXPZ20 KNHC 200259
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon May 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0220 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10.5N74W to 08N88W to
13N101W to 08N117W. The ITCZ extends from 08N117W to beyond
06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 03.5N to 08N E of 92W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 03N to 08.5N and W of 120W to beyond
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure across the NE Pacific extends a broad ridge
south and southeastward to near 15N108W. This ridge is the main
feature controlling the weather pattern across the offshore
waters of Baja California, and is supporting moderate to fresh
NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, with a few small areas of
strong winds near the coast, and gentle to moderate winds
between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
in mixed NW and SW swell across the Baja waters, except to 8 ft
well offshore of Cabo San Lucas along 113W, as recently measured
by satellite altimeter. Elsewhere, including the Gulf of
California, light to gentle winds prevail, with 2 to 4 ft seas at
the entrance of the Gulf and 2 ft or less elsewhere. Seas of 5
to 7 ft in SW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican
offshore waters. Moderate concentrations of smoke, due to
agricultural fires across the region, continue to reduce
visibility over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through at least
mid-week. The pressure gradient between this and lower pressures
over Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N
winds W of the Baja California peninsula. Winds will pulse to
strong speeds N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight and Mon night. NW
swell is forecast to impact the outer forecast waters of Baja
California Norte beginning on Mon. Seas are expected to build 8
to 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia through Wed, with seas subsiding
below 8 ft by Thu. Moderate concentrations of smoke, due to
agricultural fires, may reduce visibility over portions of
southern Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected
during the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

South to southwest monsoonal winds are moderate to locally fresh
off the coast of Ecuador and to the Galapagos Islands. Long
period SW swell is producing seas to 8 ft south of the Galapagos
Islands and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere S of 02N. Light to gentle winds
prevail elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters.
Moderate seas in the 4 to 6 ft range due to long period SW swell
are noted across the Central America offshore waters. Scattered
thunderstorms are noted across the waters between eastern Costa
Rica and the coast of Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, the monsoon trough extending along 09N-10N
will help to focus scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the Central America waters over the next couple of days.
Winds will remain moderate or weaker through this week. Southerly
swell propagating across the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
offshore waters will support seas of 6 to 8 ft tonight through
Tue night. Seas across the Central America offshore waters will
remain 4 to 7 ft.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1038 mb, located N of the forecast
area near 41N141W, extends a ridge across the waters N of 15N
and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure along the ITCZ is forcing fresh to locally strong NE to
E trade winds from 07N to 19N and W of 125W. Seas are in the 8
to 10 ft range within these winds. Elsewhere under the influence
of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft
prevail N of 16N to 31N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in NW swell in this
area. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas
are 7 to 9 ft within S and SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the area N of 10N and W of 110W through
most of the week. This will maintain mostly moderate to fresh
trade winds and moderate to rough seas along the southern
periphery of its associated ridge. The high pressure will
strengthen through Mon, bringing strong winds across the trade
wind zone. Long period SW swell will continue to propagate
across the forecast waters through mid-week. Seas of 8 to 10 ft
will begin to slowly decay Mon, and subside below 8 ft by Fri.

$$
Stripling