060
FXUS65 KFGZ 082154
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
254 PM MST Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Below normal temperatures will continue through the
end of the week, with near/above afternoon highs returning over
the weekend. Typical spring-like breezes will remain through the
forecast period, with slight chances for showers and thunderstorms
across some areas Friday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The large area of low pressure that brought the
strong winds to northern Arizona on Monday is now over the Great
Plains. There is also a large area of high pressure off the West
Coast. Arizona is between these two atmospheric features...in a
zonal or westerly flow. The low will slowly fill as it moves
southwest and over Utah by Thursday afternoon. Even though the low
pressure approaches Arizona, our pressure will increase and will
slowly increase our temperatures through the end of the week. Most
of northern Arizona have afternoon highs staying a few degrees
below-normal for this time of year. Will will see afternoon
seasonal southwest breezes for the next few days as well.

By late Thursday, enough moisture and instability returns to
northeast Arizona for a few showers and/or thunderstorms. The low
remains over the area through the weekend with low chances for
showers and thunderstorms remaining into next week...with the best
chances along our Utah and New Mexico border. Again, even with the
low over the area, the surface pressure will increase with
temperatures warming to above average by Sunday for many area.

There will also be areas of smoke from prescribed burns and wild
fires that could reduce the visibility at times this week.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 08/18Z through Thursday 09/18Z...VFR
conditions will continue across northern Arizona with mostly clear
skies. Scattered smoke, resulting in periods of MVFR VIS, is
expected in the vicinity of KFLG for this afternoon due to
prescribed burns just south of the terminal. Afternoon winds will
be out of the west, 15-25 kts, becoming easterly 5-10 kts after
03Z. Stronger northeast winds are likely at KSEZ overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/18Z through Saturday 11/18Z...Widespread VFR
conditions are anticipated across the region. Mid to upper-level
cloud cover should become SCT-BKN along and north of I-40 on
Thursday and Friday afternoons. Expect westerly winds 15-25 kts
for Thursday and Friday, becoming northwest on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry and cool conditions with
breezy afternoon winds are expected for Thursday and Friday.
Anticipate minimum humidity of 10 to 15% each afternoon with
moderate to good recovery by Friday night. Elevated northeast winds,
10 to 12 mph, are likely tonight across the High Country, followed
by west-southwest winds, 15 to 25 mph, for Thursday and Friday
afternoons.

Saturday through Monday...Slight chances (10 to 20%) for showers
and thunderstorms are forecast along the UT and NM borders on
Saturday afternoon, extending along the higher terrain of northern
Arizona for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures warm to above average
for Sunday and Monday with afternoon humidity of 15 to 20%. West-
northwest winds, 15 to 25 mph, are forecast each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff