Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
252 FXUS65 KGGW 091903 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 103 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered showers move through south of HWY 2 this afternoon, with dry weather the next couple days afterward. - There is high confidence for slightly warmer than normal conditions this weekend into much of next week, with moderate confidence of scattered thunderstorms beginning Sunday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: As the low pressure system that gave northeast MT rain earlier this week moves off to the south, scattered showers will pop up south of HWY 2 this afternoon. They will end from north to south this evening, giving way to a ridge that will bring slightly warmer than normal temps to the area this weekend into early next week. A shortwave trough, with an accompanying cold front, is expected to move through on Monday to initiate thunderstorms. A drop to near normal temps will occur with this system by Tuesday. On Monday, the NBM indicates surface dewpoints will be in the 40s to low 50s, while most of the GFS ensemble members indicate moderate (50 percent) probabilities for surface-based CAPE values to exceed 500 J/kg. There is low confidence of severe thunderstorms occurring on Monday, as the CAMs do not reach far enough out in time to resolve the timing and location of the stronger storms. CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST: High confidence exists on a slightly above average temperatures this weekend, as NBM forecast highs in the 70s and lower 80s are expected on Sunday and Monday. There is low confidence on the timing and location of strong thunderstorms on Monday. -Stoinskers && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 2000Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR/MVFR DISCUSSION: Cloud ceilings will mostly remain in VFR territory, with scattered MVFR possible in showers. As a weak cold front passes through, scattered showers are expected to develop south of HWY 2 and last through late this afternoon before ending. There will be VFR conditions after 03Z. WINDS: North at 5 to 15 kts, becoming northwest at 5 to 10 kts after 00Z. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow