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000
FXUS63 KGLD 201907
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
107 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow showers are still expected across most of the
  area today. Precipitation is expected to decrease in coverage
  and intensity through the day. Any new snow accumulations are
  generally expected to be under an inch. Any new rain
  accumulations are expected to be under a quarter of an inch.

- Near to above average temperatures are forecast for Sunday and
  beyond. There could be daily small chances for rain/storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 216 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For the remainder of today, rain and snow shower are forecast for
locales mainly along and north of I-70. Current radar observations
show the precipitation slowly starting to shift north. This trend is
expected to continue through the morning, with the heaviest
precipitation generally along and north of Highway 36. This is based
on RAP guidance suggesting that the precipitation is based more on
isentropic lift with a lack of a surface boundary and lack of low to
mid level frontogenesis. The best conditions are forecast to
continue to gradually shift north through the morning with more
intermittent conditions along and south of I-70. Snow still looks to
generally be confined to north of I-70 and west of Highway 27 based
on temperature observations. With weak cold air advection and
persistent cloud cover, temperatures likely won`t drop much across
the area the remainder of this morning and remain in the 30`s.
Conversely, the persistent cloud cover through the day will hinder
how high temperatures will get during the day similar to yesterday.
As long as the cloud cover doesn`t break, most of the area will warm
only into the upper 30`s to mid 40`s. For precipitation amounts, the
consensus is around another tenth or two across the snow area with
the rest of the area seeing up to a tenth of an inch. Snow should
taper off by the early afternoon hours as temperatures warm just
enough to melt most of the snow that falls.

Tonight, cloud cover is forecast to linger through most of the night
with a lack of air mass change and dry air to clear the moisture.
While winds are forecast to be relatively calm, the cloud cover and
dewpoints around 30 will help keep temperatures in the lower to mid
30`s.

Tomorrow, the upper pattern is forecast to begin changing with more
ridging over the area. This will allow the area to warm up to near
average temperatures in the low 60`s. If the cloud cover clears
early in the morning, mid to upper 60`s would become more likely.
Precipitation remains unlikely with high pressure over the area and
relatively drier air forecast to move in through the day.

Monday, a cut-off low is forecast to rotate around the larger low in
Eastern Canada. This will help a surface low pressure system develop
across the Plains. The southern part is forecast to cut off from the
rest of the Plains and deepen slightly along the KS/CO border. With
the low forecast to keep southwesterly flow over the area, warm air
will be able to advect into the area and allow for temperatures to
warm into the 70`s and maybe even some low 80`s. Another thing for
Monday will be to watch for some chances for thunderstorms. While
drier air is forecast to move in on Sunday, some low level moistures
is forecast to linger in the Panhandles region. If the low doesn`t
move too far south, some of that moisture could be pulled into the
area and develop storms along a surface convergence zone associated
with the low. Severe weather chances currently look to be low with
less than 1000 J/KG of CAPE and potential capping (though a boundary
could overcome the cap).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A fairly active pattern looks to be in store for the long-term.
Wednesday, a ridge will move over the region allowing us to warm
into the low 70s. A low pressure system will force the ridge out,
but when is the big question.

The GFS has a well defined upper-level low pressure system moving
through the area Thursday afternoon/evening. The ECMWF and CMC-NH
delay this feature about 12-18 hours. However, at 850 mb, all three
show a low pressure system moving across the area between 0-12Z
Friday, suggesting another (potential) nocturnal event. SPC has
placed a 15% severe weather outlook for our eastern area for this
timeframe. There is good agreement that an 850 mb moist conveyor
belt will setup around Thursday 6Z, feeding Gulf moisture into the
eastern 1/3 to 2/3 if the CWA, and continue until the cold front
attached to the low moves through. Confidence is low (<15%) for
timing of this event, but anywhere from Thursday afternoon to Friday
evening looks to be fair game.

In the far western CWA Thursday afternoon, west of the dryline
(wherever it may setup) conditions look favorable for near
critical fire weather conditions. RH values in the mid teens
with wind gusts around 25 kts could put about 1/3 of Cheyenne
county Colorado into Red Flag territory. Confidence of Red Flag
criteria is about 15%.

Winds will generally be southerly, save for Friday when they will be
northwesterly behind the FROPA. Pressure changes with this system do
not seem to be as strong as what they were last week, thus current
confidence for High Wind is less than 10%. The generally southerly
winds will allow us to keep temperatures a bit warmer overall.
Thursday is expected to see mid 70s to mid 80s. Friday and Saturday
are expected to cool off, with highs in the 70s. Overnight
temperatures will be in the mid 40s to low 50s ahead of the cold
front; behind the FROPA, we will see lows in the upper 30s to mid
40s.

A weak ridge looks to build in from the southeast Friday night and
Saturday morning which will clear out any remaining precipitation.
This happens just ahead of another low pressure system that guidance
is showing will impact the area around Saturday night. Due to how
far away the event is, climatology, and forecast temperature trend,
we cannot rule out some more snow showers or severe weather moving
over the area with this second system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

At KGLD...IFR likely to prevail through most of the TAF, with
occasional breaks to MVFR possible this afternoon. Light snow
continues to move across the area from the west, with another
round possible this evening. Fog will also be possible with
additional visibility reductions. Ceilings likely to stay IFR
through the entire period.

At KMCK...VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Precipitation has not been reaching the ground at KMCK due to
dry lower levels. Ceilings may get close to MVFR at times, but
expecting mainly VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK