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000
FXUS63 KGLD 130909
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
309 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect for several counties south of I-70
  Saturday.

- Monday is forecast to be a multi-hazard day, including
  critical fire weather, blowing dust, and strong to severe
  thunderstorms.

- Strong northwest winds Tuesday, potentially up around 50 kts
  gusts.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 729 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Overall forecast remains on track with little changes. Am
watching the potential for some perhaps some smoke to move into
eastern portions of the area (Graham/Norton counties) overnight
and into the morning hours from prescribed burns across Central
Kansas today. The HRRR Near Surface Smoke does indicate some
higher concentrations which may lead to some smokey smell for
some in the morning hours before the nocturnal inversion
dissipates. Also am seeing some signal for brief gusty winds
perhaps around 50 mph with any virga or showers that may
develop during the afternoon hours Saturday as DCAPE looks to be
around 1100 j/kg with inverted v soundings. If this were to
occur the relative favored area would be along and north of
Interstate 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Tonight...mid and high level clouds move across the area from
southwest to northeast. There is a sliver of weak elevated
instability with this batch of clouds, however not enough at this
time to support a precipitation mention. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the lower to middle 40s. A few readings in the 30s
are possible in the vicinity of the Republican River valley where a
period of light winds are expected.

Saturday-Saturday night...weak/broad upper level ridging will be
over the area, ahead of a closed upper low, forecast to move into
Nevada/central California by 12z Sunday. Southwest to northwest
winds of 10 to 20 mph are expected during the day with gusts up to
30 mph. Overnight, west to northwest winds around 10 mph are
currently forecast. High temperatures are forecast to range from
around 79 degrees in Flagler to 90 degrees in the Norton and Hill
City areas. Record/near record high temperatures are possible in
Hill City (92 degrees set in 2023), Colby (87 degrees set in 1936),
Tribune (88 degrees set in 1946) and Yuma (83 degrees set in 2003).
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 40s to around 50.

Sunday-Sunday night...as the upper trough slowly moves east into
Utah by 12z Monday, south to southeasterly surface winds slowly
develop and increase through the day with the higher speeds over far
eastern Colorado. Overnight, occasionally breezy southeast winds are
currently forecast. The current forecast is dry, however,
GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700-500mb relative humidity show a disturbance moving
northeast across the area during the time of peak heating, possibly
supporting some slight chance pops for showers and maybe a
thunderstorm. Something we`ll need to watch for. High temperatures
are forecast to be in the lower 80s to around 90. Record/near record
high temperatures are possible in Goodland (88 degrees set in 2017
and previous years). Low temperatures are forecast to be in the
lower 40s to lower 50s.

Monday-Monday night...this mornings GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEFS models move
the upper low into central Colorado by the end of the day then over
the Tri-State area overnight.

Currently, southeast to southwest winds gusting 35 to 50 mph are
anticipated during the day. Locally developed blowing dust/dust
storm thresholds are being met using the reliable GFS model,
favoring locations either side of a line from Tribune and Leoti
northeast to Trenton and McCook in the 21z-00z timeframe. GEM model,
which also does well, remains just a bit lower on the needed wind
speeds of at least 43kts in the 0.5-1km layer but its axis of these
winds is in line with the GFS. Overnight, winds gradually switch to
the northwest for most of the area behind the developing surface
low.

Regarding precipitation chances, there is a large dry slot being
advertised in the 850-500mb layer from the GFS/ECMWF/GEM models
which doesnt support much if any showers/thunderstorms during the
day. Shower/thunderstorm chances do increase overnight. Cant
completely rule out a few severe storms during the evening hours,
mainly east of Highway 27 if at all.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with low temperatures in the 40 to 50 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Ahead of a low pressure system moving over the CWA late Monday, the
high temperatures during the day Monday will be in the 80s to
potentially low 90s. These warm temperatures combined with southerly
winds sustained around 25-30 kts and gusts up to around 40 kts will
dry out the CWA. Minimum RH values Monday will be near 7-10% for
locations along and west of a line from Gove, KS to Benkelman, NE.
Confidence for prolonged critical fire weather Monday afternoon is
about 50% and increasing. If the cold front moves through in the
early afternoon Monday (~5-10% chance), prolonged critical fire
weather conditions will be less likely.

Blowing dust will also be a concern Monday afternoon, and confidence
for less than 1 mile visibility in blowing dust is slowly
increasing, currently about 15-20%. The blowing dust is generally
expected to be along and east of a line from Cheyenne Wells, CO to
Benkelman, NE. Prime times for blowing dust will be 21-01Z.

Monday evening/night, the low pressure system will bring a cold
front through the CWA which will start a general cooling trend for
the remainder of the period. The exact timing of the front is still
a bit murky, but most models are showing the FROPA starting around
3Z Tuesday from the northwest. Precipitation is expected to
accompany the cold front, starting Monday evening in the far
northwestern CWA. Closer to 0-6Z Tuesday, thunderstorms are forecast
across most of the area and SPC has placed a Slight risk for severe
storms over locations along and east of Highway 25. A dryline will
setup near the western extent of the Slight risk and be the trigger
for the storms. Later in the evening, the FROPA will add fuel to the
environment and potentially send the storms into overdrive with
additional shear. Soundings from the GFS and CMC-NH near Hill City,
KS show 500-1700 J/kg of MU and SFC CAPE with LCLs dropping to near
1000m near 3-9Z. 0-1 km shear around this time also increases to
above 15 kts. Mid-level lapse rates range from 8.5-9.5 C/km around 0-
15Z. These ingredients suggest a risk of significant hail and
potentially tornadic storms overnight. Climatologically speaking,
this is the time of year we start seeing increased nocturnal
convection. PoPs are highest Tuesday morning (45-70%) and taper off
to the north-northeast through the mid-day/afternoon Tuesday. PoPs
drop sharply around 6Z Wednesday; this is a slight change from 24
hours ago. Models are showing a stronger dry slot moving in and
putting a quicker stop to the precipitation.

Behind the cold front on Tuesday, northwesterly winds are expected
to strengthen. Sustained winds look to be around 30 kts with gusts
of 35-48 kts expected for the most of the Tri-State area. The NBM is
showing two separate surges of higher winds, the first near 12Z and
the second around 18-21Z. The operational NBM is really the only
guidance showing the 12Z surge, but most models are agreeing on the
afternoon winds. This could become a High Wind day, especially in
the western CWA. Confidence is around 40% for 50+kts winds.

If majority of the CWA sees more than a few hundredths of
precipitation, the strong winds would be the only hazard Tuesday mid-
day and afternoon, after the morning storms. If little to no
precipitation falls, especially in the southwestern CWA, RH values
will drop into the mid to low teens leading to another critical fire
weather day and widespread blowing dust. Confidence for the "dry"
option to occur has increased from 24 hours ago due to the more
pronounced dry-slot, and is now around 25% chance of occurrence.

On Wednesday, the far southern counties will warm up near 80 as a
surface low moves through in the mid-day. This will lead to elevated
fire weather to briefly critical fire weather conditions in the
afternoon ahead of the low and associated weak cold front. Winds
have come down from the day shift`s forecast and RH values have
slightly increased, lowing the threat of fire weather concerns for
Wednesday. The low does increase PoPs across the area Wednesday
evening, but this is not a well organized system, so only scattered
showers and storms are expected.

A weak shortwave looks to move over Thursday evening and give us a
slight chance of showers into Friday morning, mainly in the northern
CWA. Due to the cooling temperatures, there could be a rain/snow mix
in eastern Colorado with the locations to the east seeing only rain.

By Friday, maximum temperatures will be capped in the 50s with
similar conditions on Saturday. Overnight temperatures on Monday
night will remain in the 40s, but by Thursday night upper 20s to mid
30s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1026 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

LLWS remains forecasted at each terminal as surface troughing
works its way into the region. Winds will slowly veer from the
SE to the SSW through sunrise. As troughing continues make
itself known across the area winds will become westerly and
then finally northwesterly with a period of higher sustained
winds around 15 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A red flag warning remains in effect today (Saturday) for the
southwestern portions of the area. Westerly winds gusting up to
20-25 kts are expected this afternoon with minimum RH values
dropping to near 11%. RH values will begin rebounding around 0Z,
and by 1Z the critical fire weather threat is expected to have
ended.

Sunday afternoon will see dry conditions again, but the winds
will be weaker. Southerly winds briefly gusting up to 20 kts
will give way to elevated fire weather concerns, but prolonged
critical fire weather is not expected.

Monday will be a multi-hazard day, including prolonged critical
fire weather conditions. Starting around 18Z, the southern CWA
is forecast to see critical fire weather conditions begin. As
the afternoon progresses, southerly winds will gust up around 40
kts as RH values drop to under 10% for locations along and west
of a line from Gove, KS to Benkelman, NE. Fire-fighting efforts
will be made more difficult by blowing dust that is expected to
reduce visibility. A strong cold front will move through in
evening, likely around 3-12Z Tuesday and will shift winds from
the south to the northwest. Strong winds are forecast to
continue behind the cold front Tuesday. Strong to severe storms
are also forecast Monday night.

If little to no precipitation falls Monday night and Tuesday
morning in the southern CWA, critical fire weather will be
possible again Tuesday afternoon, but not as likely (25%
chance).


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 648 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

With some locales possibly coming within a few degrees of near
record highs on Saturday, April 13th, here is the list of records
for this day:
a line from Gove, KS to Benkelman, NE.

Goodland, KS........90F in 2006

McCook, NE..........92F in 1936

Burlington, CO......87F in 2006

Hill City, KS.......92F in 2023


With some locales possibly coming within a few degrees of near
record highs on Sunday, April 14th, here is the list of records
for this day:


Goodland, KS........88F in 2017

McCook, NE..........92F in 1940

Burlington, CO......90F in 2006

Hill City, KS.......94F in 2003

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 7
    PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...CA
CLIMATE...