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000
FXUS63 KGRR 171848
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
248 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry overnight until Thursday afternoon

- Rain Thursday night with some thunder possible

- Cool and dry this weekend, blustery Saturday

- A bit milder early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

- Dry overnight until Thursday afternoon

No changes to previous thinking here. After thunderstorms clear the
area later today, there could be some wraparound precipitation across
our northern zones lasting into early tonight. Otherwise, we should
be dry the rest of the night into Thursday afternoon, when a shower
or two may be possible.

- Rain Thursday night with some thunder possible

The next possibility for rain will be associated with a very stretched
out cold front extending southwestward across the central CONUS. We
are in the exit region of a powerful upper jet during this time with
a lot of forced ascent potential. Indeed, HREF/SREF guidance both
advertise a chance for thunder across our southern zones. This activity
should exit by sunrise Friday morning.

- Cool and dry this weekend, blustery Saturday

Fair weather will return Friday through the weekend. It will
become much cooler as h8 temps fall to -7 to -9 C by Saturday. Highs
in the 50s Friday will decrease to the 40s Saturday - and Saturday
will feel quite raw as strong gusty winds drop wind chills into the
30s. Lows could fall to near or below freezing across portions of our
area early Sunday and Monday mornings as surface ridging builds in.

- A bit milder early next week

Temps will moderate a bit early next week back to near normal for this
time of year. Fair weather will continue Monday. A weak low pressure
system will bring a chance of rain showers Monday night into Tuesday.
Fair weather will return for the mid to latter portion of next week
as another surface high pressure ridge builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Primarily MVFR conditions are expected this afternoon with brief
reductions to IFR due to briefly heavier rain and stronger
thunderstorms. South to southwest winds will increase to 15 to 25
kts and heavier thunderstorms will potentially bring briefly
higher gusts.

The thunderstorms will move east of our eastern terminals by 20Z
late this afternoon. Winds will veer to the west and gradually
diminish this evening. A mix of MVFR to VFR conditions is forecast
overnight through midday Thursday with patchy MVFR due to
lingering lower cigs. Additional rain showers tomorrow are not
expected until late afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

No changes planned at this time.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TJT/Laurens
AVIATION...Laurens
MARINE...TJT