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FNUS73 KGRR 280828
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Camel 42...USFS
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
428 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

A warm front will lift showers into central lower Michigan this
morning and afternoon, then a cold front will bring widespread
showers tonight into Monday. A few storms will be possible.
Meanwhile, a very moisture rich airmass remains in place through
Monday with dewpoint values in the 50s. This will lead to min RH
values at or above 60 percent today and Monday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers likely
                    until midday. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    through the day. Rain showers in the afternoon.
Temperature.........52 at ignition...Max 61.
RH..................86 percent at ignition...Min 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 9 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northeast winds 9 to 10
                    mph shifting to the east around 10 mph late in
                    the day. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast 12 to 14 mph shifting to the east 14
                    to 15 mph late in the day.
Smoke dispersal.....110 /poor/ at ignition. Max...190 /fair/.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 2.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
Sky (%).........99     99     100    100    99     97
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............52     51     52     56     59     60
RH..............86     86     89     83     83     84
20 ft wind......NE 9   NE 10  NE 10  NE 10  E 10   E 10
20 ft wind gust.14     14     15     15     16     16
Mix hgt (ft)....900    1100   1200   1300   1200   1100
Mixing wind.....NE 12  NE 14  NE 14  E 12   E 14   E 15
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2
Smoke disprsl...110    160    160    140    170    160

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Rain showers
                    through the night. Chance of thunderstorms
                    after midnight.
Temperature.........Min 53.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....150 (fair) early in the evening decreasing to
                    90 (poor) late in the night.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the morning. Rain showers until
                    midday, then chance of rain showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 68.
RH..................Min 70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    south. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 15 to 18 mph shifting to the southwest 21
                    to 28 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....120 (poor) early in the morning increasing to
                    860 (excellent) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Thielke
Requested by...Dean Chambers
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412540.2/GRR
.DELDT 04/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dean.chambers@usda.gov