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000
FXUS62 KGSP 130426
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1226 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will filter into the region and very windy conditions will
continue today. Warmer weather returns and will last into the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of midnight: A band of light showers is passing the mountains
associated with channeled vort max within upper trough, extending
back all the way to Lake Michigan. NAM and some of the CAMs depict
a small amount of instability being realized by a combination of
the upslope NW winds and dynamic lift, evidenced by a few lightning
strikes which developed as activity passed the mountain spine. In
water vapor imagery downsloping has been evident and showers so
far have diminished as they move past the Blue Ridge Escarpment. At
the rate they are moving, and with apparent moistening of the low
levels from the first batch, can`t rule out a few sprinkles into
the lower elevation foothills including Forest City, Shelby, and
South Mountains areas. Higher elevations appear to be receiving a
rain-snow mix but streets appear wet and given the wind and neutral
advection, temps do not look to cool much more until the instability
is exhausted and precip diminishes thru the early morning. A stray
sprinkle or flurry will however remain possible in the mountains
through daybreak. T/Td appeared mostly on track but made minor
adjustments thru the morning. Will be giving consideration to
extending wind headlines before the 4 AM package, pending full
evaluation of winds.

Today, high pressure builds in over the Southeast, and the dry air
should give us a sunny day. Although the gradient relaxes, we still
expect some frequent gusts from late morning onward, particularly
over the mtns. High temps will be right around normal, and the air
mass will be dry. Dewpt might mix out enough to bring the afternoon
RH down to around 25% in spots. See Fire Wx discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2:35 PM EDT Friday: The short-term fcst picks up at 00z on
Sunday with broad upper trofing moving further off the Atlantic
Coast, as broad relatively flat upper ridging builds over our
region. A fairly weak, embedded upper shortwave will translate
over our area late Sunday as broad upper trofing persists well
to our north over eastern Canada. Upper ridging will linger over
our area for the rest of the period as another upper trof cuts
off a closed low over the SW CONUS towards the end of the period
late Monday. At the sfc, broad high pressure will be centered to
our south over the Gulf Coast as the period begins. Over the next
24 to 36 hrs, a weak cold front associated with the above-mentioned
upper shortwave will move thru our area. The front should not have
much impact on our sensible wx other than some brief low-end PoPs
over our northernmost zones late Sun into early Mon. Otherwise,
temperatures will warm thru the period with values well-above
climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2:25 PM EDT Friday: The extended fcst picks up at 00z on Tuesday
with broad upper trofing will to our north and upper ridging over the
Southeast. Over the next couple of days, a southern-stream upper trof
will lift out of the Southwest CONUS and move up and over the upper
ridge causing it to flatten. The trof axis is expected to pass over
our area late Wed into early Thurs just as another broad upper trof/
closed low moves SE from central Canada. This system will continue to
translate SE thru the end of the period, and likely be centered some-
where over the Great Lakes by the end of the period next Fri. At the
sfc, our area will be under weak SLY low-level flow and the western
fringe of the Bermuda High as the period begins. Over the next 24 to
36 hrs, a robust low pressure system will eject from the Central Plains
and bring a fairly dry cold front to our doorstep by early Wed. The
front is progged to move thru our fcst area on Wed and then offshore
by early Thurs. In its wake, the sfc pattern remains progressive with
another low spinning up just behind the first low and moving another,
potentially stronger cold front to our doorstep as the period is ending
on Fri. As for sensible fcst, the first part of the period should be
mostly dry with chances for showers and tstorms ramping up towards the
end of next week as the stronger frontal system approaches our CWA.
Temperatures will remain well-above climatology thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Strong wind gusts will continue thru the
first part of the TAF period, with KAVL seeing high-end to moderate
nw/ly gusts into Sat. Outside the mtns, winds will remain generally
w/ly to sw/ly gusting into the 25-30 kt range this evening then
subside to more low-end gusts before daybreak. KAVL could see a
brief shower or two thru the early morning, but coverage is too low
for a TAF mention. Otherwise, mid to upper clouds will continue
across the mtns and VFR conds will prevail across all sites thru the
period.

Outlook: VFR conditions will persist this weekend and early next
week as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum RH values today are forecast to drop below 30 percent over
much of the western Carolinas, but winds will not be as gusty
as today. Nonetheless, low-end gusts of 15 to 25 mph over the
lower terrain and gusts of 20 to 40 mph over the mountains are
expected. Thus, Fire danger statements will be considered and if
issued will be out by 4 AM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ033-048>050-
     052-053-059-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...PM/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...SBK
FIRE WEATHER...GSP