309
FXUS64 KHUN 291730 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 852 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The upper level ridge will continue to move east of the area
through the day today, with a shortwave trough right on its heels.
Additionally, the surface high that was over the Carolinas
continues to shift east over the Atlantic as a cold front slowly
makes its way towards the Tennessee Valley. Cloud cover has begun
to increase from the west and will continue to overspread the
region throughout the day. Not much has changed with regards to
the rainfall forecast - not expecting showers/storms until later
this afternoon when low to medium chances (20-60%) are possible
west of I-65. Guidance indicates that instability will remain
around or below 500 J/kg along with bulk shear values below 30
knots. While this will be conducive for thunderstorm development,
severe storms are not expected at this time. Current temperatures
across the local area are mainly in the upper 60s and highs are
still forecast to top out in the lower 80s later this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Heavy rain and storms will move in overnight ahead of a cold front
and as the aforementioned upper low continues to turn north
through MN. With PWATs forecast to be between 1.5-1.7", rainfall
amounts have increased a bit over the past 24 hours. An axis of
heavier rainfall is forecast to set up near the I-65 corridor,
where amounts could total up to 2.75". Outside of this heavier
rain axis, expect amounts closer to 0.75-2" with the heaviest
rainfall expected overnight tonight. With the grounds relatively
dry, do not expect widespread flooding to be an issue overnight
into Tuesday morning, but WPC has outlined the area in a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall through Tuesday. Will
continue to monitor trends in case amounts continue to increase,
but it does not appear any flood related headlines are needed as
of now.

With the better thermodynamics to our south, these storms should
remain below severe limits as the system shifts east. Expect rain
to come to an end from west to east late Tuesday morning into the
afternoon, with clearing skies and temps in the upper 70s. Winds
will calm overnight Tuesday, and combined with clear skies could
be a good setup for patchy fog. High pressure will settle over the
area Wednesday, keeping us rain free and warm as highs rise into
the mid 80s on Wednesday. Will have to watch for fog again
Wednesday night as conditions look favorable, but will wait until
closer in range to include any fog in the official forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

An upper ridge pattern will continue to translate eastward into the
mid/southern Atlantic states heading into the end of the work week.
High pressure at the sfc will also remain layered from the NE states
into the Carolinas, resulting in afternoon highs climbing predom into
the mid 80s/near 80F both Thu/Fri. An upper trough axis will also be
rotating eastward thru the mid/northern Plains, with an attendant sfc
low lifting NE into the Great Lakes area. This sfc wave will help
drag a cold front eastward thru the Midwest/Mid South regions well
into the day Fri. Low-medium chances for showers/tstms (20-50%) will
develop along/ahead of the oncoming cold front late Thu into Fri. Sct
showers/tstms will then continue into the first half of the weekend,
as the frontal boundary moves SE thru the central TN Valley. Low
chances for showers/tstms (20-30%) will also linger thru the second
half of the weekend period, as the broad upper trough pattern moves
eastward across the region. Minimal low-level convergence/instability
coupled with better dynamic forcing displayed N/W of the area should
offset the prob for more organized/stronger tstms, with QPF totals
around 0.25-0.50 inches thru the upcoming weekend. Seasonably warm
temps will continue Sat/Sun, with highs mainly in the lower 80s/near
80F, while overnight trends predom in the upper 50s/mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Cloud cover continues to overspread the region this afternoon.
Showers and storms also are on the way for later this afternoon
through the overnight hours. This will bring a slight reduction
and VIS and also MVFR to IFR CIGs later this evening and tonight.
No severe weather is expected, but lightning as well as some gusty
winds and heavy downpours are all possible. Chances for showers
will then gradually decrease from west to east through Tuesday
morning. Outside of thunderstorms through tonight, expect
sustained southerly winds between 10-15 knots with gusts up to
around 20 knots. Winds will then shift by Tuesday afternoon to be
west/northwesterly and range between 5-10 knots.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26