Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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506 FXUS63 KICT 070731 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 231 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for elevated storms Wednesday morning across southeast Kansas, some of them could become strong or severe - Dry and quiet weather to prevail for Thursday thru the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Quiet weather conditions will prevail today with westerly winds and drier air overspreading the region. Meanwhile current satellite water vapor imagery shows a deep upper level low pressure system continuing to spin over the Dakotas. Models show an embedded short wave rotating around the southern periphery of this low pressure system across Nebraska and Kansas for late tonight heading into Wednesday. This upper short wave induces a strengthening low level jet and rapid moisture transport over eastern Kansas into a decent 700mb baroclinic zone late tonight/Wednesday morning. This signal combined with steep mid-level lapse rates,decent elevated CAPE, and favorable 1-6km shear could spark of severe elevated convection around daybreak Wednesday morning over far southeast Kansas or locations just to the northeast in western Missouri which is supported by increasing HREF model probability of 4hr max Refl paintball. This upper wave will push another frontal boundary southward across the area on Wednesday where storms will re-develop ahead of this front which looks to affect areas mainly east of southeast Kansas. Dry and quiet weather conditions look to prevail for Thursday into the weekend as surface high pressure builds over the region. Long range models are hinting at next chance of storms possibly affecting the region on Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Some lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the next few hours at KCNU but after 08Z, VFR conditions will return to all areas of the region. Winds will calm down significantly as well. No aviation weather impacts are expected after 08Z. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ AVIATION...ELM