Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 181112
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
612 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 301 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday

Short-wave trough tracking through the Mississippi River Valley
will give a weak frontal boundary currently along the I-70 corridor
a shove eastward this morning. Synoptic subsidence in the wake of
the wave will cause skies to clear from west to east, with mostly
sunny skies expected across the board by midday. Forecast
soundings indicate mixing up to about 850mb, which will result in
afternoon highs mainly in the middle 60s, with upper 60s across
the southeast KILX CWA.

High pressure will build into the Great Lakes later today, then
will remain in place through the weekend. Dry airmass beneath the
ridge coupled with light E/NE flow will lead to warm days and cool
nights over the next couple of days. Have undercut MAV guidance by
a few degrees tonight, with lows dipping into the middle to upper
30s in most locations. Highs on Saturday will remain on the cooler
side of guidance as well thanks to the continued easterly
component to the wind, with highs climbing into the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Once high pressure ridge begins to shift further east,
an increasing southerly flow will bring warmer air into the region
on Easter Sunday, helping push temps well into the 70s.

LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday

Next system of interest is still slated to approach the region
Sunday night, with most 00z Apr 18 model data keeping the precip
west of Illinois until Monday. As a result of the continued
slowing trend, will only feature slight chance POPs after midnight
across the western CWA. Rain chances will increase on Monday as
wave arrives and atmosphere moistens. Given decent upper support,
adequate moisture with surface dewpoints well into the 50s, and
lifted index values dropping to between 0 and -3C, will continue
to mention isolated thunder Monday and Monday evening.
GFS/GEM/ECMWF all track upper wave well east into the Ohio River
Valley by 12z Tuesday, so am expecting slightly cooler/drier
weather for both Tuesday and Wednesday. An approaching warm front
will trigger convection across Iowa into northern Illinois
late Wednesday: however, think this will remain north of the CWA.
Next rain chance will arrive on Thursday as a cold front
approaches from the west. Still some timing discrepancies among
the operational models, but consensus points to showers/thunder
Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 605 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period (12z Sat). High
pressure will slowly drift east across the lower Great Lakes
during this period bringing a light northeast flow today at
less than 10 kts. The surface winds will slowly veer more
into an easterly direction tonight with speeds once again
expected to be less than 10 kts.

Smith
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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