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000
FXUS63 KILX 170201
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
901 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 901 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK. HOWEVER...SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS BLOWING
OFF CONVECTION IN MISSOURI. SO WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.
UPDATE WILL BE COMING SHORTLY.

AUTEN
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS DIURNAL CU DIMINISHES
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH CIRRUS IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM MORNING PCPN...EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. MVFR VIS OF AROUND 3SM SHOULD BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER VIS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE SO HAVE A
TEMPO OF 1SM BR FOR ALL SITES. THEN AFTER FOG DISSIPATES IN THE
MORNING SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE AREA AT ALL
SITES. DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
AREA UNTIL AFTER TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY TONIGHT BUT
THEN BECOME LIGHT...THEN WESTERLY AGAIN TOMORROW.

AUTEN
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE REGION...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHEAST ACRS THE FCST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE TO ITS NORTH...READINGS WERE IN THE
40S AND 50S. NOT A REAL GREAT PUSH TO THE BOUNDARY SO IT WILL BE
A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS GETTING THE DRIER AIR MASS THIS FAR SOUTH
UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND TONIGHT AND VERY LIGHT WIND REGIME...SOME PATCHY
FOG A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

MODELS DEPICTING TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ACRS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS SE ACRS THE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MISSOURI
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL SIMULATIONS
INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PLAINS STORMS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...ASSOCIATED MORE
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 TOMORROW...WITH
MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING FURTHER
NORTH.

MODELS INDICATING BOTH UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONGER RANGE MODELS ATTEMPT TO ONCE AGAIN BUILD A RIDGE NORTHWARD
ACRS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL STORM PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACRS THE PACIFIC
NW INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES NOTED ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROF AND THEN TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO SET UP OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH ACRS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GUID HAS HAD SOME LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74. SEE NO
REASON TO STRAY FROM THAT IDEA AT THIS TIME.

STRONGER 500 MB FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND BUT OUR AREA STILL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES THAT TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WOULD PUT US IN LINE...AT
LEAST OUR NORTHERN AREAS...FOR SEEING THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ACTIVITY...AT LEAST WHAT`S LEFT OF IT...AFFECTING PARTS
OF OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
FAR OUT...WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTH...FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. WILL SEE TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTING
THE REAL PUSH OF HOT AIR ARRIVING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SMITH

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$