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000
FXUS63 KILX 141824
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
124 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 124 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

ISSUED MINOR UPDATE TO ADD A STRIPE OF 50 POPS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY AFFECTING RUSHVILLE TO
JACKSONVILLE AND WEST. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS
NOW EDGED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ALTHOUGH IR IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUD TOPS BEGINNING TO WARM...FEEL SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION TO GRAZE THE CORNER OF THE CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING
EARLY THIS EVENING.

25
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT 24 HRS.
FIRST IN A SERIES OF TSTM COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE MIDWEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...IS SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER. WITH
SFC RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR STILL OVER CENTRAL IL FEEL MUCH OF
THIS WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES EAST OF THE MS RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINALS INTO
THIS EVENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ANOTHER COMPLEX
DEVELOPING OVER IA TONIGHT AND SHIFTS E/SE INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL IA SATURDAY MORNING...IN A WEAKENING MODE AS LOW LEVEL JET
SUPPORT WEAKENS AFTER 12Z. THUS HAVE MOST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ACTIVITY AFFECTING PIA...WHILE FARTHER SITES TO THE SOUTHEAST JUST
HAVE VCTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. LIGHT/VRB WINDS
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT. HIGHER SPEEDS OF 10+ KTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z SAT
AS GRADIENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVE SHIFTING ACROSS
IA.

25
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1041 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

15Z SURFACE MAP PLACED A RIDGE AXIS FROM LK SUPERIOR SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL IL AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PROVIDED
LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IA/NRN MO
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN NEB WHICH WAS TOPPING THE
UPPER RIDGE. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS BEING MAINTAINED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY A HIGH THETA-E FEED OF MOISTURE-RICH AIR FROM EASTERN
KS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH AS IT SHIFTS EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM BEST SUPPORT AND INTO DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LINGERING RIDGE. MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IDEA
WITH THE HRRR BEING A NOTABLE EXCEPTION...BRINGING SCATTERED T-STORMS
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL AFTER 21Z. WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST ACROSS
THE WEST FOR NOW BUT MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE EAST WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. HIGHS ON TRACK TO BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO SHALLOWER MIXING DEPTH UNDER
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHTER WIND REGIME.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$