Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 252111
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
311 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

High pressure remains in control of the weather for another night as
southerly winds dominate Central Illinois tonight.  A deep upper
level trof is digging in over the western half of the CONUS with
weak ridging over the eastern half in between the exiting low in
southeastern Canada and the western system.  Southerly winds tonight
will keep the temps up a bit, which will be key in avoiding fog
development.  Dewpoints in the low to mid 30s all the way to Central
Iowa and western MO.  Forecast lows in the mid to upper 30s...so
saturation  should be limited.  Clear skies will help with some
radiational cooling, however, and should the winds become lighter
than forecast in majority of guidance, fog will become a concern.
For now, leaving the winds up and weather clear.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Sun is finally shinning more than a few hours today and with
southerly winds, temps have risen into the middle to upper 40s this
afternoon. Similar conditions will be experienced tomorrow as high
pressure remains in the southeastern US and a weather system
continues to approach from the west. The southerly winds will also
bring in more moisture which should combine with the front moving in
to produce rain across the CWA beginning tomorrow night, and mainly
after midnight. Moisture and dynamics will be limited, given the
main track of the associated low pressure centers will be northwest
and north of the CWA Friday night through Saturday morning. The rain
will continue through Saturday as the cold front pushes through. As
colder air filters into the area, the pcpn should change to a mix of
rain and snow before it ends. This change will begin Sat afternoon
northwest of the IL river and then quickly move east Sat night. The
pcpn should end late Sat night with the cold front quickly moving
to the eastern US. High pressure will begin to build into the
region Sunday.

Temps will remain warm tomorrow and Sat and then begin to cool some
for Sunday and Monday.

This high pressure will mild and dry, but a colder 1054mb high press
area will drop into the area for the rest of the week. This high
press will bring dry conditions but much colder temps. Highs at
around and below freezing during the day and lows around the middle
20s and lower. Hopefully we will see more sun with this upcoming
high pressure than we have the last several weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

High pressure eroding much of the cloud cover from west to east
this morning. A cu field associated with yesterdays llvl precip
blooming over the far Eastern portions of the state. Southerly
component to the winds with gusts to 25mph today. Clouds should
start to diminish closer to sunset over the east, leaving little
more than cirrus around the region.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...HJS






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