Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 291552

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1052 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered thunderstorms that impacted mainly north-central Illinois
last evening have lifted northward out of the area and completely
dissipated early this morning.  08z/3am radar imagery now shows dry
conditions across all of central and southeast Illinois.  A weak
cold front remains poised to the west along the Illinois River:
however, all high-res models keep the KILX CWA dry as the front
pushes eastward through the area this morning.  06z NAM shows a dry
FROPA as well, with any additional convection associated with the
boundary developing further east across Indiana this afternoon.  As
a result, have gone with a dry forecast across the board.  Winds
will initially be from the southwest, then will veer to the west
after the front passes toward midday.  Airmass behind the boundary
is slightly drier, so am expecting dewpoints to drop into the upper
50s and lower 60s...while high temperatures once again top out in
the lower to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Complicated forecast issues for the next week or so as the models
continue to struggle with handling the pattern shifts over the
CONUS.  Showery/thunderstorm activity is more the rule than the
exception...timing remains problematic. Temperatures in the forecast
remain more summer-like and several degrees above normal with
southwesterly flow aloft and southerly winds at the surface
continuing to feed warm air into the region.
That being said, any one days high temperatures will fall prey to
any shower/cloud activity that could dampen the diurnal curve.

Wave finally pulls out of the region today/tonight and exits to the
east.  A rather loose flow pattern aloft with a weak gradient
setting up as the next low digs in over the Rockies.  Main concern
with the forecast surrounds the progression of the low with the
performance of the models lately with the timing.  Not a distinct
kicker on the horizon and yet the models steadily push that wave
across the country through the first half of the week.  Would prefer
a slightly slower solution...and grids reflecting that for now.
GFS/ECMWF/ensembles starting to come together with the clearing of
the frontal boundary and associated rain by Friday for a brief
break. Until then...showery activity in the forecast more often than


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Forecast generally looks good today and only update is to add
isolated showers and thunderstorms during early afternoon in far
southeast IL near the Wabash river. A mostly sunny and warm day
overall with more cumulus clouds giving partly sunny skies over
southeast IL. Highs in the low to mid 80s with west winds 8-16 mph
and gusts to around 20 mph and a few higher gusts from I-74 north.

Weak high pressure ridge of 1021 mb over AR and southern MO will
ridge into central and southern IL by sunset and bring somewhat
drier air into the region today on westerly breezes. Dewpoints
lower into the upper 50s/lower 60s over central IL and slipping
from upper 60s to near 70F late this morning in southeast IL into
the into low to mid 60s during the afternoon. RAP and HRRR models
show some qpf in far southeast IL during midday/early afternoon
where more moisture lingers for a few hours before drier air
arrives by mid and late afternoon. So will carry isolated showers
and thunderstorms near the Wabash river during early afternoon.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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