000
FXUS63 KILX 231507
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1007 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1005 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...AND WAS FAIRLY EVIDENT ON RADAR FROM PEORIA TO LEXINGTON TO
NEAR PAXTON. A STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED...WITH IT
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
THE FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE 50-55 RANGE WITH SOME UPPER 40S JUST
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING WITH THIS FRONT...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

SOME DECENT CLEARING NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA...WITH SOME THINNING OF THE STRATOCUMULUS
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN. HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT OVER THE
AREA SHOULD MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT...BUT MOST OF
THE CWA WILL SEE THE STRATOCUMULUS STICKING AROUND. AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME DECENT
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HAVE SENT SOME UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PRECIP TRENDS. TEMPS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT A SHORT FALLING TREND
BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE LEVELING OUT OR CREEPING UP A BIT AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

GEELHART

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

560 DM 500 MB LOW NEAR THE IA/WI/IL BORDER AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROF TO PULL EASTWARD ACROSS IL THIS MORNING AND OVER IN/OH
THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPREADING
SE TOWARD I-70 EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN IL MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 SO FAR.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF A FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM
1004 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SE ONTARIO THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MI
INTO NORTHERN IL NEAR I-80 AND INTO SOUTHERN IA. AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AND SURFACE TROF SWING SE THROUGH CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING
EXPECT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...THEN DIMINISH FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OVER THE IL RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER EASTERN IL DURING THIS
EVENING. COOL TODAY FOR LATE MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL IL AND 65 TO 70F IN SE IL FROM I-70 SE. NNW BREEZES
TO MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER TODAY.

1034 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND RIDGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO SETTLE INTO WI AND
NE IL AS 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT BRINGING A COOL NIGHT TO
CENTRAL IL AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STAYS OVER LAKE MI
AND EASTERN IL FRI PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND NE WINDS LESS THAN 10
MPH AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE RIDGE
NEARBY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
SAT. THIS PUTS IL IN A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING SE ALONG THERMAL GRADIENT
NEAR CENTRAL IL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF I-55 AFTER MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN SPREAD A 30-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN IL SAT (SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER EASTERN/SE IL SAT AFTERNOON) AND INTO EASTERN IL BY
SAT NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUE OVER MUCH OF AREA WITH THE LOWER POPS
NEAR THE WABASH RIVER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TO ALSO KEEP AREAS NE OF
CENTRAL IL DRIER THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SHIFTS
CHANCES OF CONVECTION NORTH OF CENTRAL IL. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ALSO FROM SUN-WED WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND CLIMBING TO AROUND 80F
TUE AND LOW TO MID 80S WED.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$