153
FXUS63 KILX 010917
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
417 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather today with isolated showers and thunderstorms
  tonight into Thu mainly north of I-70 as warm front lifts north
  through southeast IL overnight and through central IL during Thu
  morning. Better chance of thunderstorms west of the IL river Thu
  afternoon/evening.

* Above average temperatures expected through the next 7 days,
  warmest temps Thursday with highs in the mid 80s and breezy
  south to SSW winds gusting up to 30 mph.

* Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday
  night and shifting into eastern IL during Friday as cold front
  moves eastward over the prairie states.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms tracked eastward across
areas along and north of a Canton to Normal line during late
evening and early overnight. Peoria picked up 0.39 inch rain and
bringing their April rainfall total to 7.29 inches, bringing it up
from the 12th to the 8th wettest April on record. The weakening
area of convection was along the northern IL/IN border northeast
of Vermilion county IL and moving away from central IL. This
convection was out ahead of a weakening cold front extending from
1002 mb low pressure in northeast MN through eastern WI into nw IL
approaching the IL river and into central MO. Mild temps were in
the low to mid 60s with cooler 40s and 50s back in Iowa.

Cold front to continue to weaken as it pushes through southeast IL
early this afternoon and passed through dry rest of today. Partly
to mostly cloudy skies over central IL today with more sunshine in
southeast IL. South to SW winds 7-15 mph and few gusts up to 20
mph to turn nw after frontal passage. Highs today range from the
mid 70s over the IL river valley, to the lower 80s in southeast IL
from I-70 southeast where cold front passes through later and more
sunshine for solar heating.

A warm front lifting northward over southeast IL overnight and
through central IL Thu morning, to bring isolated showers and
thunderstorms to the area, with best chances north of I-70
overnight and early Thu morning. Lows overnight in the upper 50s
central IL and lower 60s in southeast IL.

Surface low emerging over southeast CO by sunset to eject ne into
the upper MS river valley by sunset Thu and lift warm front north
of CWA by midday Thursday. Convection chances still look quite low
on Thu east of the IL river, with best chances west of the IL
river Thu afternoon especially late Thu afternoon when SPC day2
introduces marginal risk of severe from Galesburg to Quincy west
into Thu evening. Breezy south to SSW winds Thu with gusts 25-30
mph to bring warm highs in the mid 80s, and warmest day since
Sunday Apr 14th. Cold front moves eastward into central IL by dawn
Friday with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from
west to east during Thu night. Best chances of showers and a few
thunderstorms shift into eastern IL on Friday and lingering
chances of showers Fri evening in southeast IL. Highs Friday in
the low to mid 70s.

Dry conditions overnight Fri night and Saturday morning, then a
weak disturbance could bring a chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms into the area Sat afternoon and evening. Much of CWA
appears dry overnight Sat night and Sunday, though we have low
pops in southeast IL Sunday afternoon/evening. Highs in the 70s
this weekend which is still a few degrees warmer than normal for
early May.

Extended forecast models continue to show a strong/deepening
mid/upper level trof over the western states and ejecting a
stronger storm system into the central plains on Monday and
surface and upper level low lifting into the Dakotas on Tue while
pushing a frontal boundary into IL. We will likely see periods of
showers and thunderstorms Mon through Tue and may have risk of
strong to severe storms from Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Highs
in the mid to upper 70s Monday and upper 70s/lower 80s Tue. Trends
of models continue to show heavier rainfall early next week
focuses from Texas NNE to Iowa along with stronger risk of severe
weather.

07

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

One small cluster of decaying convection continues to make its way
eastward toward the Illinois River Valley late this evening. Based
on radar timing tools, have maintained thunder at KPIA from
05z-06z. Will also maintain a period of -SHRA at KBMI after 06z,
but will only mention VCSH at the other terminals as the precip
area is rapidly shrinking. Winds will initially be S at 10-15kt,
then will veer to S/SW after the dying showers pass. Winds will
then swing to the W/NW after FROPA Wednesday morning.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$