000
FXUS63 KILX 192004
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
304 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST TODAY DEALS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS AND MORE SUMMER TYPE
OF HUMID AND WEAK PCPN CHANCES.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MORNING UPPER AIR AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN STATES WITH OTHER UPPER TROUGH IN THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN REGION. WEAK RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WILL BE THE
STRENGTHENING FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE DATA SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IN GREAT LAKES WITH FAIR WEATHER CU OVER CWA TODAY
IN LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

ALL MODELS CONSISTANT IN BUILDING OVER UPPER RIDGE OVER PLAINS AS
THE EASTERN TROUGH MOVES TO EAST AND THE WESTERN TROF EXPANDS OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN REGION. BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO PUMP WARM AIR INTO MIDWEST THAT CONTINUES
INTO WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RIDGE INFLUENCE OVER OVER CWA REMAINS THROUGH THE WED PERIOD.
EXPECT HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INTO NEXT
WEEK. NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA MAY HAVE FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
CONVECTION AS REMAINS OF MCS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER EVEN WHEN THE MAIN WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUES AND WED...UPPER RIDGE STILL AIDS IN
SHELTERING OUR AREA. FOR THAT REASON...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEMS...CHOSE TO KEEP POPS ON LOW END...AT THE MOST IN THE
WIDELY SCT RANGE. WHEN PERIODS GET CLOSER...ADDITIONAL POPS MAY
THEN BE NEEDED.

GOETSCH
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1230 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE HAD SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES OVER THE LAST HOUR OR
TWO...AND THESE MAY BRIEFLY FORM CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT...BEFORE TAKING A
MORE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PULLS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

GEELHART
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$