000
FXUS63 KILX 121100
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
600 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwest winds through the afternoon today with gusts of
  30-40 knots at times.

- A warming trend will begin today. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
  are expected by tomorrow, lasting into late week. Lows in the
  50s and 60s are likely through the extended.

- Tuesday brings the next chance for severe weather for central
  Illinois as a low pressure system passes through the Midwest.
  Strong winds could also be associated with this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

There are some lingering showers this morning. but they should be
out of the area by mid morning. Once these move out, there will be a
period of dry weather that will last for 3 days, ending Monday
evening. As today`s departing system finishes its exit from the
area, strong winds are to occur. Wind gusts of 30-40 knots are
likely today out of the northwest. They are expected to relax by
this evening as the sun goes down.

Temperatures will begin to warm up to the upper 70s to low 80s by
Saturday and will hang around the 70s through the week for highs.
Next Friday, the highs will drop back down into the upper 50s to low
60s. Lows through the next week will range from 50s to 60s until
Thursday night when temperatures are expected to drop.

The next potentially impactful system expected to move through
central and southeastern Illinois appears to be Tuesday. A strong
low pressure system with an associated cold front is to sweep
through the area bringing strong to severe thunderstorms. MUCAPE
isn`t super impressive right now, with models only showing around
800-1000 J/kg. However, the bulk shear for that afternoon is around
60-70 knots. One thing central Illinois is good for is the severe
weather on high shear / low CAPE days. Moisture won`t be lacking
with Td in the low 60s that afternoon.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR ceilings and visibilities will continue through this TAF period.
However, with a stronger shower that may pass, ceilings could barely
lower to MVFR ceilings of 2500-3000 feet. There are still ome
lingering showers across the area, so kept the VCSH in for all sites
but SPI, through mid-morning. Skies should clear out by this
afternoon. Strong NW winds gusting to around 30 knots today last
through the day but should wain down as the sun sets this evening.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$