National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KIND 260435
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1235 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern returns Friday into next week with above normal
temperatures and frequent storm chances

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Quiet evening continues as the region remains under the influence of
high pressure to the northeast. Northern fringes of a broad cloud
shield remains across the southwest half of the forecast area. These
clouds are associated with an upper wave tracking through the Ozarks
and ahead of a warm front. Temperatures ranged generally from the
upper 40s to the mid 50s at 01Z.

The forecast is in great shape for the overnight. The cloud shield
will persist across southwest counties as the upper wave moves into
the lower Ohio Valley...but mostly clear skies are expected elsewhere
for much of the night. Lows will fall back into the upper 30s over
the far northeast with 40s elsewhere. Not out of the question that
isolated pockets of frost will form in the predawn hours mainly
over portions of Delaware and Randolph Cos.

Zone and grid forecasts out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight...

High pressure will remain in control at the surface, with upper
ridging aloft. Thus, only some high clouds are expected at times
through tonight.

Cool temperatures will continue overnight, with lows in the upper
30s to middle 40s.

Friday...

A warm front will approach central Indiana during the day. 850mb
winds will be from the southwest and gradually increasing in speed.
This will bring in some moisture to the area.

Isentropic lift will increase ahead of the warm front, and some
upper level energy moving in behind the exiting upper ridge will add
to the forcing. There looks to be adequate moisture and forcing for
likely PoPs across the western forecast area, with lower PoPs east
where moisture will be less.

Some weak instability will move into portions of the south and west,
so an isolated thunderstorm will be possible there.

Temperatures will be warmer, with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

By Saturday, central Indiana should be well positioned inside the
warm sector, with surface temperatures reaching the upper 70s to low
80s Saturday afternoon. Temperatures should increase even further
into Sunday as southerly low level winds increase. The current
expectation is for highs in the low 80s on Sunday, but the daily
record of 86 for Indianapolis is not out of reach, depending on
cloud cover from upstream MCSs.

Besides a residual 800-700mb boundary the overall environment
will lack sufficient lift for convection. This should keep
conditions dry, but a few weak elevated showers cannot be ruled
out. Given the high probability of robust upstream convection over
(MO/IA), a few left over boundaries or upscale growth into the
Ohio Valley could change this current line of thinking. Best
chances for any thunderstorms would likely be over western
portions of Indiana.

Late Sunday through early next week, a second shortwave will
approach from the west, along with a trailing frontal providing an
increased thunderstorm threat. Its still too far out to determine
severity, but current parameter spacing expectations could lead
to deep convection and a non-zero severe threat. This should
become more clear in the coming days.

Day 8-14: Multi-model ensemble mean continues to show strong signal
for above normal temperatures. No large-scale systems appear present
to produce widespread/significant precipitation, so smaller scale
features interacting with instability look to be the primary impetus
for convection. So, near or below normal precipitation is expected
during this period.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Impacts:

- VFR Conditions expected overnight and on Friday Morning.
- Showers possible Friday afternoon along with possible high MVFR
Cigs.

Discussion:

GOES16 shows high clouds over the middle Mississippi Valley
spreading east across the TAF sites. These clouds were associated
with an upper wave that was found over the plains. This feature is
expected to advance east, allowing the high clouds to continue to
overspread the TAF sites through through the overnight hours.

As the best forcing arrives on Friday afternoon scattered showers
are expected. Forecast soundings at that time show deep saturation
arriving by mid to late afternoon. Hence have used vcsh mention for
a window along with high MVFR Cigs into the evening to account what
should be light precip amounts. Confidence for specific timing
remains low, thus VCSH seems the best route at this time.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...Puma