Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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353 FXUS64 KJAN 070029 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 729 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 This Evening through Tuesday: Despite SBCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg indicating an unstable air mass across our forecast area, a shortwave ridge aloft has been suppressing convection and limiting deep-layer wind shear so far today. A trough however is apparent over East Texas on water vapor satellite imagery, and this has helped at least a few isolated storms develop to the west. Isolated to scattered showers or storms are still possible through early this evening, but organized severe weather is not expected at this time. Into tomorrow, a trough swinging across the Plains is expected to shift a plume of better instability into our area, and showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly in eastern Mississippi during the afternoon/evening hours. With increased flow aloft, there is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms to develop in this activity. /NF/ Tues Night through Sunday: Lingering rainfall from the daytime will gradually come to an end for extreme northern and northeastern portions of the CWA as the weak shortwave exits the area. Warm/humid conditions will begin to filter in thanks to southerly flow, causing dewpoints to reach the lower 70s and above-average high temperatures in the the upper 80s to lower 90s and low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the mid-week. A more active pattern is expected for Wednesday night through early Friday morning. A low pressure center is expected to progress eastward towards Great Lakes, in turn pushing cold front towards the southeastern CONUS on Wednesday. Ahead of the frontal boundary, a warm/moist airmass will be in place to help promote showers and thunderstorms. Along with sufficient moisture (dewpoints in the lower 70s), bulk shear values of 50-60 kts and Surface CAPE values of 3000 to near 4000 J/kg will help support organized convection and severe weather potential Wednesday night through Thursday night. A "Slight" and "Marginal" risk for severe weather will continue to be advertised in the HWO graphics. The aforementioned cold front is expected to push through the CWA on Friday, bringing rain chances to an end by the afternoon hours. To close out the extended forecast, post frontal passage along with a surface high pressure center will bring below-seasonal to seasonal temperatures and drier air to the area through the weekend. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 729 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Scattered clouds remain at VFR across the forecast area to start the TAF period. Winds have become lighter from earlier & isolated SHRA & TSRA are possible through the next couple of hours. MVFR-IFR ceilings are expected to develop again after 07/05-08Z Tuesday, with some psbl LIFR at PIB/HBG, before lifting to VFR by 07/16-17Z & prevailing through the remainder of the TAF period. Southerly winds will persist, up to 20mph & gusts up to 30mph at most. Isolated SHRA & TSRA are psbl at GTR & MEI by the aftn, with low probs added between 07/21Z to 08/00Z. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 69 87 71 90 / 20 30 0 20 Meridian 66 89 70 92 / 20 50 10 20 Vicksburg 69 87 71 90 / 20 20 0 10 Hattiesburg 68 88 72 90 / 20 30 0 10 Natchez 68 87 71 90 / 20 20 0 10 Greenville 72 86 73 89 / 20 20 10 20 Greenwood 70 86 72 89 / 20 40 10 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/SW/DC