National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KJKL 211125
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
725 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fair weather lasts through Tuesday.

- Frost will be possible in some sheltered valley locations this
  morning, but is expected to be most widespread Sunday
  night/Monday morning and again Monday night/Tuesday morning,
  especially through the valleys.

- Another moisture-starved cold front is forecast to pass Tuesday
  night into Wednesday morning, bringing a round of light rain
  for northern locations.

- Confidence in weather forecast late next week is lower than
  normal at this range due to significant weather model differences.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 AM EDT SUN APR 21 2024

An upper disturbance will track over the area over the next couple
of hours producing primarily virga but with perhaps a few drops
reaching the ground. Kept PoPs below the 15 threshold to warrant
mentioning in the point-and-click and zone forecasts. Otherwise,
the forecast is largely on track and just blended the forecast to
the latest hourly temperature grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT SUN APR 21 2024

Sprawling surface high pressure continues to bring fair and dry
conditions to eastern Kentucky. An approaching wave over the North-
Central US is moving toward the area and a downstream jet streak
over the Ohio Valley are contributing to extensive high clouds. A
wave moving east-northeast along a stalled frontal boundary over the
Southeast US may skirt the far southern part of the CWA (mainly
along and southeast of Pine Mountain) this morning with some light
rain, but probabilities for this occurring are less than 20 percent.

Skies clear tonight behind the passage of a dry upper trough, with
the combination of light winds, clear skies, and dry air allowing
for optimal radiational cooling conditions late tonight into Monday
morning. Given the expected lows in the lower to mid 30s in most
valleys, with a few upper 20s also possible in isolated valley
locations, widespread frost seems like a good bet, so we have issued
a Frost Advisory for late tonight through mid-morning Monday. Fair
weather continues through Monday with transitory upper ridging
moving across the area ahead of the next system approaching mid-
week.

Highs today will be quite cool and some 10 to 15 degrees below
normal under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies in the afternoon.
Lows tonight will fall to the lower to mid 30s with widespread frost
likely, with isolated freeze conditions possible in the coldest
sheltered valley locations. A warming trend commences Monday under
sunny skies but highs will still be 5 to 10 degrees below normal in
the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT SUN APR 21 2024

The period begins with surface high pressure in place across the
area. This will continue to keep the forecast area dry with clear
skies. This coupled with continued northwesterly flow, areas of
frost will be possible again late Monday night through early Tuesday
morning mainly in the more sheltered eastern valleys.

Models continue to remain in agreement with a system moving across
southern Canada. While this occurs, a surface low and associated
cold front will cross across the northern CONUS. Ahead of the
approaching front, flow turns southwesterly and increasing
temperatures are forecast before the front crosses through the
Commonwealth late Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast along and ahead of the front
but due a widespread lack of instability due to the timing of the
front, severe weather looks to be limited. Also, recent model runs
have continue to weaken the front. Total QPF for the front ranges
from 0.20" for the northern half of the CWA with decreasing amounts
going south approaching the TN/KY state line.

High pressure builds back into the region for late Wednesday and
persists through early Friday morning. However, models remain in
agreement for the end of the week, with another system moving out of
the Central Plains with another cold front bringing shower and
thunderstorms chances for the end of the week. Long-term
deterministic models keep shower and thunderstorm chances through
the end of the period with what appears to be a constant train of
ridge-riding MCSs.

Overall, frost chances will exist Tuesday morning before warming
temperatures are expected ahead of a surface cold front for
Wednesday. Temperatures drop a little bit for Thursday but begin to
rebound Friday and Saturday. Also, an active period is expected as
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT SUN APR 21 2024

Sfc high pressure will bring VFR conditions through the period.
Some scattered to possibly broken low and mid clouds are
anticipated at times particularly this afternoon and evening.
Sustained winds are generally expected to be 10 KT or less and
through the period averaging from the north to northwest.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC