260
FXUS64 KLCH 090916
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
416 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Winds across the region are lighter this morning than has been
seen the last few days and this has allowed for more widespread
fog development although none of it is particularly dense at this
hour and don`t expect widespread dense fog to be an issue.
Visibilities should improve by 14Z. Additionally, some light
shower activity is being observed from DeRidder to Alexandria
along the remnant boundary of an MCS that moved through parts of
northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana yesterday evening. Don`t
expect this to amount to much and precip should gradually
dissipate over the next couple of hours.

Another morning of near record or record high minimum temperatures
as a very tropical airmass remains in place. Afternoon highs are
again expected to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s with
afternoon apparent temperatures likely eclipsing 100 across
central Louisiana and interior parts of Southeast Texas.

A shortwave pushing across the southern plains will swing a cold
front through the region late this evening into early Friday
morning. Guidance has been in good agreement over the last couple
of days in developing an MCS across central and eastern Texas that
will then cross central and northern Louisiana tonight. Severe
weather parameters favor the development of a line of damaging
winds and large hail, but there will be a sharp precipitation
gradient with very little, if any, precipitation making it as far
south as the I-10 corridor. Thus, the highest severe will be
limited to northern Tyler, Jasper, Newton counties and Vernon,
Rapides and Avoyelles parishes. Obviously, with the oppressive
tropical airmass ahead of the MCS, convection will have abundant
moisture to work with and periods of torrential rainfall are
also likely within the MCS which could lead to localized flash
flooding.

Behind the front, noticeably cooler, drier air will filter into
the region Friday with dewpoints falling back into the low to mid
60s in what will be a refreshing reprieve from the mid to upper 70
dewpoints we`ve endured this week. The nice weather will continue
through Saturday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
Enjoy it because this very well could be the last gasp of spring
for the northern gulf coast.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

The long term period will be active with isolated showers and
storms almost daily. Going into Sunday, an upper level cutoff low
will be moving into the Plains while at the surface, the high
pressure will be moving out of the area. As the surface high
departs, southerly flow will resume which will bring in a plume of
moisture over the area. PWATs are expected to quickly rise over the
day with maximum values across the southern tier of the CWA near the
2 inch mark. Showers and storms will increase over the day, with
heavy rainfall likely. As a result, WPC has outlined our CWA in a
Slight to Marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday.

This activity will continue into Monday, as the upper level low
moves further east over the Central Plains and a warm front lifts
north out of the Gulf. Once again, heavy rainfall can be expected in
this moisture rich environment and with the area already having
received rain over saturated soils, additional amounts can lead to
flash flooding. WPC has outlined the entire CWA in a Slight risk for
excessive rainfall for Monday.

By Tuesday, models are split on the placement of the upper level low
and trailing cold front. Overall it is expected to open up as it
moves east with the front likely to move through our northern zones,
however the timing and placement vary from model to model.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

MVFR ceiling will continue as warm moist air from the gulf
continues to move onshore. These ceilings will remain stubbornly
low for the rest of the TAF period with VFR ceilings returning
around 19Z tomorrow. Fog will be the main concern tonight as
a dense marine fog layer will move on shore. Visibility is
expected to drop below 3 miles with denser patches, down to 1/2
miles, at terminals along I-10. After sunrise conditions will
rapidly improve.

Winds will remain onshore for the TAF period but will slowly
weaken.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A light to moderate onshore flow and seas with seas 2 to 3 feet
will prevail today. Areas of dense fog may reduce visibilities
below one mile through the early morning with visibilities
gradually improving through the day.

A cold front will push through the coastal waters
Thursday night accompanied by isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Offshore flow will develop behind the front Friday and Saturday.
Onshore flow becomes reestablished Sunday as high pressure slides
east of the area. Precipitation chances will also increase again
Sunday and Monday as a series of upper level disturbance moves
across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  66  85  59 /  20  50   0   0
LCH  88  72  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  92  75  88  66 /  10  20  10  10
BPT  89  72  89  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for GMZ430-432-
     450-452-470-472.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...66