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000
FXUS64 KLCH 211800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS IS CARRIED THROUGH THIS
ROUND AS WELL. SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUDS APLENTY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CEILINGS SLOWLY RISE...AND
ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR SHORTLY. LOCAL 88DS SHOW A FEW SPOTTY SMALL
SHOWERS POPPING UP MAINLY INLAND AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN
FILL IN WILL CEILINGS GRADUALLY DROPPING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STILL SEEING HINTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...
THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONTINUED WITH STRONGEST WORDING AT KAEX..LESS SO OTHER SITES
ESPECIALLY SERN TERMINALS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET FOR NOW, HOWEVER
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE THE TEMP AND RH GRIDS FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER WX ELEMENT WAS TOUCHED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE
DAY. CLOUD BASES WILL BE LIFTING FROM MVFR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP PUSH THIS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL
PLACE SOME PROB30 GROUPS AT KAEX/KBPT/KLCH AROUND 22/06Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HOLDS TOGETHER WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH KARA/KLFT UNTIL THE VERY END OR AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY BRINGING
A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD MAKE FOR A WARM AND DRY
HOLDIDAY WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN THE GFS LATER TODAY AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR ZONES. USED THE
EURO BEGINNING TONIGHT. THAT MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH AND IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON THE RAIN CHANCES. DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE WAS
NOTED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WENT A BIT WARMER ON TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS LOOKING STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING DESPITE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  72  86  72  88 /  10  40  50  10  20
KBPT  87  73  87  74  88 /  10  40  50  10  20
KAEX  92  71  87  67  91 /  20  50  50  10  20
KLFT  88  74  87  69  92 /  10  40  50  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$