Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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734 FXUS64 KLCH 290629 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 129 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A line of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing across north portions of the area. Large swaths of precipiation totals 3 to 6 inches have alread occurred with more rainfall to come. Shear vectors aloft have aligned with the line, and combined with deep moisture through 700 mb (as seen from 06Z RAOB), there will be very little forward movement in the line in the next hours. Where there is movement, expect strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Again, the main concern through the morning is flash flooding, wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Expect a deeper dive into the extended forecast later in the morning. 11/Calhoun && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Wx map shows surface high pressure off the East Coast and a low pressure trough across the Central Plains southward to Central Texas. Over our region, the pressure gradient is slowly relaxing, allowing for winds to diminish for all areas except the immediate coastal parishes. Thus, have trimmed back the Wind Advisory for SE TX and the I-10 corridor of Southern Louisiana. Minor coastal flooding continuing with values peaking between 1.5 to 1.8 feet Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) earlier this morning along the coast, and this afternoon across the Sabine and Calcasieu basins. Considering the duration of these southeast winds keeping tides 1-2 feet above astronomical tide over two days now, sufficient infiltration into the marshes and low lying coastal areas have likely occurred. Thus, will keep the ongoing Coastal Flood Warning for Southern Jefferson & Orange Counties and Cameron & Southern Calcasieu Parishes. Further east across coastal Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes, tides reached 1.5 feet Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during the times of high tide. Thus, kept the ongoing Coastal Flood Advisory. With southeast winds expected to diminish before next high tide cycle, lower tides are expected. Therefore, the Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories will not be reissued for Monday. The approaching longwave mid to upper level trough over Central Plains southward to Texas expected to move slowly as the shortwave within the base of the trough ejects northeastward through Monday. Showers and thunderstorms have reformed across Central and Northeast Texas. This area is expected to move across Northeast Texas this evening, with development further southwest. This area is expected to either maintain or redevelop as an MCS into the overnight hours through Monday morning. Severe weather will be possible, with the greatest risk across Inland SE TX late this evening/early Monday morning. SPC has Enhanced Risk for Tyler & Northern Jasper, and Slight Risk for remainder of area into Central and Southern Louisiana, expect Marginal Risk over Lower Acadiana. All modes of severe weather will be possible. The other item will be the expected rainfall of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts through Monday evening. This areal extent has shifted southward, thus have extended the Flood Watch southward as well to include all of Southeast Texas and along the I-10 corridor northward across Central and Southern Louisiana. Did not include Lafayette parish and the remainder of Lower Acadiana as the totals here at this time only ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Expect lingering moisture and lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday, with chances around 30-40%. Otherwise, south to southeast winds and above normal temperatures expected to continue. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Ample moisture will remain in the area during the mid to late week period. No significant system is expected over the area Wednesday or Thursday, however with the lack of any ridging locally and weak disturbances aloft passing to the north, isolated to scattered mainly diurnal showers and storms will be possible. Friday into the weekend a weak front may move into the area. This boundary may provide an uptick in coverage before washing out or lifting back north late in the weekend. 05 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 A developing slowly advancing squall line will continue to move across the region through the morning with individual showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of it. Storms within the squall line will have the potential to become severe with wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH, large hail and torrential rainfall. TEMPO groups reflect the best estimate for the squall line passage at each terminal. Ceilings within the squall line will drop to IFR with visibilities falling to 1/2 mile or less. Outside of storms, breezy southerly gradient winds will continue through the morning before weakening this afternoon. Ceilings will improve to VFR this afternoon through tonight. Jones && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 79 64 86 64 / 90 10 20 10 LCH 81 69 84 69 / 90 10 40 10 LFT 81 70 86 71 / 100 20 40 10 BPT 84 69 84 70 / 70 10 40 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ027>033-141>143-241>243. TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516- 615-616. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ430-432- 435-436. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ450- 452-455-470-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...66