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000
FXUS64 KLCH 141430
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
930 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRIFTING INTO THE NE SECTIONS OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG
THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREA AND MORE ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEAKENING BACK DOOR FRONT THAT WILL ENTER ACADIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE, UPPED THE POPS INTO THE SCT CAT. ALSO TWEAKED THE SKY
COVER TO PC FOR THE DAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 14/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN SOME MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR DUE
TO LIGHT PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14/13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL PLACE
VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES STARTING AT KAEX 14/18Z AND OTHER TAF SITES
AFTER 14/20Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 FOR THE ACADIANA AREA, JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO
MODELS ON MINIMAL POPS TODAY. INCLUDED THIS CHANCE FOR OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES AS A BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
ALTHOUGH CAPPING AND MID LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED, UPPER
DIVERGENCE, A LEFT FRONT QUAD OR EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
JET, GOOD THETA AT H7, PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES, AMD
MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
THE INHIBITING FACTORS. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAK AND LATE SO
TEMPS SHOULD REPEAT THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL VALUES ACHIEVED ON
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THERE NOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE LATER NEXT WEEK TO BRING BACK A RETURN OF CLIMO PRECIP
CHANCES WITH AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE DRIVEN BY ONSHORE FLOW. THE GFS
IS DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
UNDER THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH COVERING THE PLAINS AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE EURO INTERPRETS THIS AS A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  94  74  95  75  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
KBPT  93  76  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  97  70  96  72  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
KLFT  95  73  95  75  93 /  30  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$