000
FXUS64 KLCH 180028
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
728 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...SENT OUT AN UPDATE REMOVING ANY MENTION OF EVENING PRCIP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED SOME
LOW END POPS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MORE ABUNDANT. WILL BE EVALUATING
POPS FOR POST-MIDNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSTREAM MCS
TYPE DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ADVANCE TO THE AREA.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NOW THAT ALL THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS ENDED PER REGIONAL
88DS...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE TAFS EVEN
THOUGH ENOUGH WEAK BOUNDARIES/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LINGER FOR
MAYBE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ERODING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AS NEWLY FORMED (AND LARGE) TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HEADS
TOWARD GUATEMALA..

FURTHER UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS DESERT OLD
MEXICO. A WEAK TROUGH MARKS THE OUTER EASTERN PERIPHERY OF DOME
.EXTENDING THROUGH THE COASTAL TEXAS PLAINS TO SHREVEPORT.

DISCUSSION...
A WESTERLY WAVEGUIDE IS IN PLACE, STRETCHING ALONG A NEW MEXICO TO
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TRACK. SHORTWAVES--EMANATING OUT OF THE NEW
MEXICO FRONT RANGE--WILL ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES.

THE INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE COMBINED LIFT WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE LIFT ATTENDING THE TRAVELING
SHORTWAVES WILL GIVE AN ADDED BOOST TO THE DAYTIME CONVECTIVE PLUMES.

MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
NEAR 2 INCHES (ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MID-JUNE
BENCHMARK NORMALS).

INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL. THE K-INDEX WILL BE RUNNING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30`S (CELSIUS DEGREES). THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY BE RUNNING AROUND 3000 J PER KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  91  77  91  75 /  10  30  20  40  10
KBPT  75  92  76  91  75 /  10  20  20  30  10
KAEX  73  90  71  91  72 /  20  50  20  40  20
KLFT  76  91  75  91  76 /  10  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$