000
FXUS64 KLCH 210959
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
459 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY BRINGING
A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD MAKE FOR A WARM AND DRY
HOLDIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN THE GFS LATER TODAY AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR ZONES. USED THE
EURO BEGINNING TONIGHT. THAT MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH AND IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON THE RAIN CHANCES. DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE WAS
NOTED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WENT A BIT WARMER ON TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS LOOKING STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING DESPITE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  86  72  86  72  88 /  10  40  50  10  20
KBPT  87  73  86  74  88 /  10  40  50  10  20
KAEX  92  71  87  67  91 /  20  50  50  10  20
KLFT  86  74  87  69  92 /  10  40  50  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$