000
FXUS64 KLCH 152039
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
339 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ENEWD ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH A PAIR OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND IT. FIRST
ONE IS HELPING PRODUCE AN AREA OF RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NW BUT WITH
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP PERSISTING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED ON REGIONAL 88DS CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
WITH THE 2ND VORT TO ITS WEST. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF COAST KEEPING A PERSISTENT MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY AIR NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION APPEARS TO BE WINNING OUT
AFTER ALL AS COVERAGE OF RETURNS ON RADAR HAS BEEN STEADILY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z MAINLY OVER THE LA ZONES. BUT
LOOKING BACK OVER CNTL TX BEGINNING TO SEE MORE CONVECTION FIRING
AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ENE-
BOUND TOWARD THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE
MAINTAINED A SMALL POP FOR TONIGHT FOR THIS AREA. STILL CARRYING
SLIM POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW AS NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES
AND INTERACTS WITH THE DEEPENING MOISTURE IN PLACE.

BEYOND TOMORROW NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO SPEAK
OF. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN RISING IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
ON FRIDAY...WITH DEVELOPING RIDGE SERVING AS A CAP WHICH WILL KEEP
POPS TO BASICALLY NIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND DESPITE THE PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WITH MAXES NEAR
90 FOR THE NRN ZONES SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES...HELPING BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN TERMS OF TIMING/COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
AM KEEPING 20ISH POPS TO COVER.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A DECENT GRADIENT PERSISTS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
TX/SRN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  66  81  70  83  71 /  20  20  10  10  10
KBPT  68  82  70  83  71 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  62  84  68  87  69 /  40  20  10  10  10
KLFT  64  82  70  85  70 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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