000
FXUS64 KLCH 162325
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH WINDS STAYING UP
ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUD BASES.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL BE NEARING IFR LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ENEWD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...INCLUDING A SINGLE SEVERE
STORM...CROSSING NRN LA. OTHERWISE A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR EAST MAINTAINS A MOIST SRLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THREW IN A SMALL POP ACROSS THE EXTREME NERN ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE INTENSE CELL NEAR KSHV HAS SHOWN RIGHT-MOVING
TENDENCIES AND COULD SURVIVE THIS FAR SOUTH...OR POSSIBLY SPIN OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG ANY RESULTANT OUTFLOWS. OVERNIGHT
HOURS THEN LOOK CLOUDY/WARM/MUGGY AS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED GIVEN A NEAR-SATURATED LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOUTHERLIES ALOFT.

RIDGING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BEGIN TO CAP THE REGIONAL ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. DID THROW IN SLIM POPS
AGAIN FOR E-CNTL LA WHERE LESS CAPPING IS PROGGED. THEREAFTER THE
FORECAST LOOKS DRY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PUSHING 90 FOR THE NRN ZONES SATURDAY/SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH THE SAVING GRACE EACH DAY BEING DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXING DOWN AND HELPING KEEP RH VALUES FROM BEING OVERLY OPPRESSIVE.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES...HELPING BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO SMALL POPS ACROSS MUCH
OR ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY AGAIN LOOKS DRY AS
RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

MARINE...
HAVE INSERTED CAUTION HEADLINES ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AS SRLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  83  71  86  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  71  84  71  85  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  68  87  70  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  70  85  71  87  71 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$