000
FXUS64 KLCH 191208
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 15Z GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR ALL SITES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH SOME GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY LATE MORNING. STABLE CONDITIONS EQUATES
TO ANOTHER DRY DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.

13

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH NORTH
FLORIDA TO ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FURTHER-UP...A NEGATIVE-TILTED TROUGH...EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. A CONSEQUENT COLD LOW
WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WARM SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
STEERING CARIBBEAN AIR INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.

THE MORNING MARINE STRATUS EXPECTED TO FRAGMENT INTO FAIR-WEATHER
CUMULUS BY LATE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SKY COVER WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SATURDAY`S CLOUD COVER.

OTHERWISE...THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PINEY
HILLS AND LAKES REGIONS. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES. WIND WAVES WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 5 SECONDS.

&&

.OUTLOOK...
THE DAKOTA LOW WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY ON WEDNESDAY. A
SALIENT SHORTWAVE...EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
LOW...WILL SWING EASTWARD THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND INTO LOUISIANA...
BRINGING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PINEY HILLS AND LAKES REGIONS.

THE TRAVELING DAKOTA LOW WILL REACH WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY.

NOTE...THE GFS SOLUTION HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. A COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY (AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  75  84  73  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  85  74  83  74  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  89  74  89  70  88 /  10  10  10  10  20
KLFT  88  77  85  72  85 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
21

$$