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000
FXUS64 KLIX 140502
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Benign weather expected the rest of this weekend into the start of
next week. The upper level trough that brought last week`s severe
weather event is exiting the East Coast, headed into the Atlantic
Ocean. Basically the remaining portions of the Lower 48 are under a
very broad upper level ridge with the center roughly along an axis
extending from Mexico to the Dakotas. This high pressure system will
slowly shift east through this portion of the forecast period,
lending to moderating temperatures as the atmospheric column rises.
There`s not much spread in guidance in terms of forecast highs/lows
so didn`t stray from NBM. Excluding coastal areas that will see more
limited warming due to cooler water temps nearby, highs will be
rising into the low to mid 80s which is a few to several degrees
above normal. No rain in the forecast, and not much in the way of
clouds either until Monday night, as PW`s barely reach/exceed 1
inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

By Tuesday, a trough ejection will be taking place across the
central parts of the CONUS. Back down here, ridging still looks to
hold over the area, preventing the effects of the trough to make it
down here. This, along with the continued onshore flow and warm air
advection will keep us warm and mostly dry towards the middle of
next week while a dry pocket from 850-700mb keeps us rain-free.

There are indications of a frontal passage at the end of next week,
but given how far out it is currently, there are differences in
solutions. When the front passes, expect mostly showers with it as
the main upper-level forcing stays well north of the area across the
Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all of the terminals as
high pressure over the region keeps skies clear. Winds may pick up
a bit from the south tomorrow afternoon, and have winds of 10 to
12 knots in place at the terminals after 18z.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

High pressure centered over the area will continue to bring VFR
conditions and light southerly winds to all of the terminals
through the end of the forecast period. PG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A surface high pressure nearly overhead is currently sliding east
and will remain generally in the position in relation to the local
coastal waters throughout this forecast period. That`ll bring the
return onshore flow and solidify southerly flow. A trough
approaching from the north mid week will tighten the pressure
gradient. So expecting winds/seas to increase to near exercise
caution for a day or 2 before subsiding as front stalls north of the
area. May have a frontal passage late week into the weekend but this
one too may or may not make it through the local area before
dissipating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  81  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  57  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  56  82  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  61  85  64  83 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  59  78  62  78 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  55  80  57  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...ME