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000
FXUS64 KLUB 151127
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A mid/upper low located just northeast of Las Vegas, NV early this
morning will move northeastward over southeastern Utah this
morning and then to the Colorado Front Range this afternoon. In
response, surface cyclogenesis in the lee of the Front Range this
morning will result in a deepening surface low that will move
northeastward toward western Nebraska. This will result in a
dryline pushing eastward into the forecast area late morning
followed by movement to near or even just east of the Caprock
escarpment this morning. Good low level moisture advection ahead
of the dryline on breezy south winds will provide the fuel for any
potential thunderstorm development. However, models continue to
suggest a strong capping inversion will remain in place through
the afternoon in the warm sector. Very late day mid level support
may be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development either side of 00Z should enough cooling aloft whittle
away the cap. Hi-res convective models give the best chance for
this to occur across the far southeastern corner of the forecast
area. The previous forecast package was trending this direction,
and 00Z model guidance supports further trimming PoPs, maintaining
20-40 percent across about the eastern/southeastern third of the
forecast area. MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and robust shear per 0-6
km bulk parameter progged at 65-75 kts. Thus isolated supercell
potential will exist on the condition of convective initiation
with very large hail and damaging wind gusts still seen as the
primary threats. Otherwise, NBM looks fine with other forecast
elements.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Surface winds will gradually decrease through tomorrow afternoon as
the upper low moves eastward from the Central Plains into the
Midwest. A weak cool front will push into the region behind the
passage of the upper low tomorrow night which will drop overnight
lows into the mid 40s/50s. Surface winds will return to a more
southerly direction Wednesday morning in response to a surface low
developing over Colorado. An upper low across southern Canada will
push a much stronger cold front southward by late week. Models are
in fairly good agreement with having the FROPA through the FA by
Thursday afternoon. Models differ on the pressure gradient/rises
behind the front. The ECMWF shows an average of 6-7 mb over 6 hours
while the GFS shows and average of 10 mb per 6 hours. While both
would result in breezy northerly winds, the GFS solution would
provide 5+ knots stronger winds than the ECMWF. Models continue to
bring an upper shortwave trough across the Desert Southwest Saturday
that could provide the region with widespread rainfall. The ECMWF is
currently the most bullish with precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Could see a brief drop to MVFR conditions at KCDS due to an area
of light fog attempting to develop across the eastern Texas
Panhandle. Could also see some minor restriction to visibility due
to blowing dust at KPVW and KLBB this afternoon. For now will
continue with VFR conditions in each TAF. Focus then shifts to TS
potential at KCDS toward and after 00Z. Best chances now appear to
be to the south of said terminal and will continue with a dry
forecast there.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

West of the dryline will bring very dry air and gusty west-
southwest winds. Forecast relative humidity of near 5 percent
across the western two columns of counties will combine with
20-foot wind speeds of 20-30 mph resulting in RFTI values of 7-8.
TFS forecast fuel danger of very high there as well. This could
push eastward another column of counties, although RFTI falls of
to 5-6 and fuels appear to be in a little better shape. Will
convert the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning and will hold
off on adding any counties at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...07