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000
FXUS64 KLZK 121712
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Currently, skies were clear and temperatures were in the mid 40s to
mid 50s early this Friday morning. Pre-dawn winds were light and
variable.

Quiet weather conditions are expected to prevail through the short
term. The lead up to the weekend will be characterized by an upper
trough over the Great Lakes region with an amplified ridge moving
into the Rockies. Between these two features, large scale forcing
for subsidence will dominate, promoting mostly sunny skies Friday
and Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will move move W to E
along the Nrn Gulf Coast. Winds locally will be W/NWrly this
afternoon, gusting to 15 to 25 mph at times. Winds will switch to
the SW on Saturday as high pressure slides Ewrd towards FL. By
Saturday, the upper ridge will move into the plains states.

Temperatures this afternoon should climb into the upper 60s to mid
70s after starting off mainly in the 40s. Tonight, temperatures will
not be quite as cold, with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A
notable uptick in highs are expected on Saturday with readings in
the upper 70s to low/mid 80s. And on Saturday night, lows should be
in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees as low-level moisture increases.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The period will begin with high pressure centered over the southeast
United States. Clockwise flow around the high will bring a southerly
flow into Arkansas on Sunday/Monday, and this will result in well
above average temperatures. Dry conditions will be noted, with an
uptick in moisture levels.

On Monday/Tuesday, a powerful storm system will emerge in the
central Plains, and will track toward the upper Midwest. The
system will drag a cold front toward us, but the front will likely
hang up near the Arkansas/Missouri border.

Ahead of the front, breezy southerly winds will continue. Scattered
strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from
central/eastern Kansas to northern Texas Monday night. The storms
may make it into northwest Arkansas before weakening. It appears
storms could refire farther east on Tuesday, and may become
strong in the central/eastern counties.

A lull will follow on Wednesday, and temperatures will be
unseasonably warm. Models show another storm system forming along
the aforementioned stalled front in the Texas panhandle. The system
will head this way on Thursday, and will trigger another round of
showers/thunderstorms. A surge of cooler/more seasonal air will
follow as the period ends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

High pressure will continue through the period promoting calm and
dry conditions across all terminals. Widespread VFR conditions
will prevail. Winds will remain out of the NW through the
afternoon hours and could be gusty at times. Winds are expected to
shift out of the SW by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     51  81  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         49  81  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       50  80  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    50  80  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  54  81  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     53  80  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      50  80  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  48  82  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        49  81  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     51  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   50  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         49  80  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      52  80  59  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...73