755
FXUS64 KLZK 120135 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
825 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a cut off low
over the four corners region with a broad upper level ridge over
the southern plains. Visible satellite imagery showed some mid-
level cumulus clouds over Arkansas which will probably dissipate
after sunset. However off to the west in the ridge axis there are
quite a few thick cirrus clouds which will move east over Arkansas
at some point tonight. This is usually a fairly innocuous
phenomena not really worth mentioning in a forecast discussion,
however with another G4 or G5 geomagnetic storm forecast for
tonight per the Space Weather Prediction Center, there is bound to
be a greater than average interest in any cloud cover over
Arkansas tonight for those hoping to catch a glimpse or long
exposure photograph of the northern lights again. If you missed
last night`s display, you will have an opportunity tonight,
however checking things out earlier than later is suggested as
these high clouds will eventually move over the state by Sunday
morning. I`m not a space weather expert, so I can`t guarantee
tonight will be as amazing as last night, but if you missed last
night, it`s probably worth a look-see just in case!

Back to more germane weather conditions, Sunday is expected to
remain dry as broad upper level ridging remains over the state.
However, low-level winds are expected to turn around out of the
southeast bringing low-level moisture back up across the state in
earnest. The cut off/closed low pushing the ridge axis east over
Arkansas will continue east on Sunday, spreading large scale
forcing for ascent over the state from west to east from Sunday
afternoon through evening. Where large scale forcing for ascent
from the upper low meets the best low-level moisture advection,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop over southern Arkansas Sunday evening. Rain showers and
thunderstorms will likely spread north throughout the overnight
hours, but may initially struggle to maintain the same coverage,
somewhat fighting drier air to the north until a combination of
rain and moisture advection saturate things up. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will continue Sunday night into Monday morning,
but are expected to somewhat diminish in coverage at least after
sunrise Monday morning.

On Monday, a warm front will move north towards Arkansas from east
Texas and Louisiana. How far that warm front moves north will
largely determine the severe weather chances across the state
Monday afternoon and evening. In simple terms, the more coverage
of showers and thunderstorms across Arkansas Monday morning, the
more rain cooled air will push against the warm front moving north
Monday afternoon. The NAM gives us a break in storms Monday
morning allowing the warm front to move as far north as central
Arkansas, setting the stage for a fair bit of severe thunderstorms
across the southern half of the state late Monday afternoon into
Monday evening. The GFS and ECMWF models keep the warm front
farther south, keeping the severe weather threat more in place
over southwest and far southern Arkansas with more widespread
elevated showers and thunderstorms across the northern two thirds
of the state. It`s too early right now to know which solution is
more likely to verify, however prior experience alone, which
granted is not a model forecast, suggests that warm fronts are not
all that efficient at moving north in the absence of very strong
southerly winds driving the front north. Southerly winds will be
in place Monday, but H925 and H850 winds are only expected to be
on the order of 25 to 30 kts, so if I had to hedge, I`d say the
GFS and ECMWF solutions of keeping the severe weather threat
farther south are more likely to verify. Definitely something
important to keep any eye on over the next 24-36 hours.

Cavanaugh

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

To begin the period, much of the state will be in a period of
unsettled weather as a closed low is expected to be centered just
north of the state. This will bring the chance for showers and
thunderstorms Monday night (continuing from the short term period)
through Tuesday. A brief break in the rain is expected Wednesday
before additional showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast
Thursday and Friday as a frontal boundary approaches the state from
the west.

As of right now, severe weather chances appear low at this time but
some strong storms cannot be ruled out. Changes to the forecast are
possible so continue to check back for additional updates. What is
known at this time is...an unsettled weather pattern is likely
across the state through much of next week, bringing the chance for
multiple rounds of showers and storms.

Temperatures are expected to be in the 70s to mid 80s through the
period with overnight lows dropping into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions will continue, with mainly high clouds overnight, and
more mid clouds on Sunday. Clouds will gradually thicken with time,
and there is an outside chance of spotty MVFR conditions due to
low clouds in southern Arkansas Sunday afternoon. The wind will
be light/variable overnight, and south/southeast at 6 to 12 knots on
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     59  83  62  74 /   0  10  70  90
Camden AR         61  78  61  81 /  10  40  80  60
Harrison AR       56  79  59  74 /   0  20  70  90
Hot Springs AR    62  80  61  79 /  10  20  90  70
Little Rock   AR  64  83  64  80 /  10  10  80  70
Monticello AR     64  81  64  81 /  10  30  90  70
Mount Ida AR      60  79  61  79 /  10  30  80  70
Mountain Home AR  55  81  60  73 /   0  20  60  90
Newport AR        60  83  63  75 /   0  10  60  80
Pine Bluff AR     63  81  63  80 /  10  20  90  70
Russellville AR   61  82  62  77 /   0  10  70  80
Searcy AR         60  82  62  76 /   0  10  80  80
Stuttgart AR      63  81  64  78 /  10  10  80  80

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cavanaugh
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...46