Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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583 FXUS64 KMAF 281052 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 552 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 After a busy evening for eastern portions of the area we are in the clear for a couple of days. A Pacific front has shoved all low level moisture well east of the area. West winds will be much lighter this afternoon as the pressure gradient finally weakens. Highs will be a couple of degrees cooler today for most locations, but still near normal for late April. The dry air will lead to a comfortable night with lows by Monday morning in the 40s/50s. Monday looks quiet as well with fairly light winds again and highs climbing closer to 90 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Zonal flow aloft on Tuesday gradually backs to southwesterly for Wednesday and Thursday as a trough swings through the central Rockies into the central Plains. Lee troughing induced by the zonal flow helps pull the dryline back west of the Permian Basin by Tuesday morning. Without much synoptic aid, widespread storms aren`t expected but a few weak storms are possible in the eastern zones Tuesday evening. More rounds of storms are possible off the dryline both on Wednesday and Thursday with a bit more ascent as the aforementioned trough moves a little closer. Still, this feature is too far north to provide much help and storm coverage may only be a touch higher than Tuesday. The real effect of the trough is going to be a notable cold front sent into our region Thursday night. The front essentially washes out the dryline and with east-southeast flow instilled late Friday, brings good moisture back into the area. This is just in time for the next shortwave set to approach on Friday-Saturday, which could be the next wholesome chance for good rainfall for a larger portion of the area. Ensembles are always optimistic at these time ranges...so we`ll see how the forecast trends the next few days. As for temperatures, the low level thermal ridge reigns dominant for the middle part of the week and hot temperatures are the result, especially behind the dryline. Much needed relief comes with the strong cold front Thursday night that takes high temperatures from the upper 80s and 90s on Thursday into the 70s and 80s for Friday/Saturday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 VFR prevails with westerly winds through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 81 54 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 81 51 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 89 59 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 84 56 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 71 52 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 78 50 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 76 44 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 80 54 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 80 56 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 84 53 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...29