211
FXUS64 KMAF 271743
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1243 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Low level moisture continues to push northwest into the area ahead
of the next upper trough currently over the Four Corners. A
leading shortwave moving overhead this morning will generate a few
showers and storms across the eastern Permian Basin. Severe
weather is not expected and rainfall amounts look light. Dry air
will mix east fairly quickly once the sun comes up likely pushing
the dryline to the far reaches of our CWA by late afternoon.
Strong winds are expected behind the dryline especially across the
Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains of SE NM. Will add a Wind
Advisory to the plains in addition to the warning in effect for
the mountains. Wind gusts could near 55 mph across Eddy Co and
near 50 mph from Hobbs to Tatum. Temperatures will top out near
normal today in the 80s/90s. The dryline will sharpen and begin to
move back west this evening before being met with an eastward
advancing Pacific front. This collision looks to take place along
a line from Big Lake to Colorado City. This is where another round
of showers and storms will develop. These storms will quickly
move east and should be out of our area before becoming severe.

The upper trough will lift into the Plains Sunday with continued
westerly flow at the surface behind today front. Winds look much
lighter with speed only around 10-15 mph. Temperatures will cool a
few degrees, but you won`t notice it much.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Upper flow returns from the post-trough northwest flow to quasi-
zonal for Monday and is set to linger through mid-week. A calm
start to the week is the result until a weak shortwave brings
the return of precipitation chances on Wednesday. The zonal flow
induces lee troughing and pulls the dryline (and 55+ dewpoints) up
against the higher terrain each morning. Until any forcing
arrives, the result is just some warm and muggy mornings with the
dryline doing its typical diurnal dance to the east during the day
and west at night. Even with Wednesday`s weak trough, the forcing
is marginal at best and a bulk of the precipitation should stay
to the east of our area or our eastern zones at best. The NBM is
catching onto this idea and PoPs have decreased as such. A more
potent trough swings through the north-central Rockies into the
Plains on Thursday but is too far north to provide direct
precipitation chances. However, this feature will likely send a
cold front into the area Thursday into Friday. This may help focus
an additional chance of rain/storms, especially if the dryline
retreats...but time will tell. As far as temperatures go, the long
term is generally characterized by hot (and dry) afternoons
behind the dryline (highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s) with
warm/muggy mornings with the retreating dryline (lows only falling
to the upper 50s and 60s). With the cold front coming in the
latter half of the week, some relief arrives both in high and low
temperatures.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Westerly to southwesterly winds will become gusty at all terminals
this afternoon into this evening, with the strongest gusts to
30-40kt expected to impact CNM/HOB. While localized blowing dust
will be possible, have not included mention at this time due to
low confidence in impacts at any given terminal. Winds diminish
overnight tonight, shifting to the west-northwest, before
returning to the west/west-southwest on Sunday. Thunderstorms late
this evening should remain to the east of MAF/FST, though a few
showers may be possible at MAF/HOB in the 00Z-03Z time frame.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Stronger winds arrive today as the next trough approaches,
especially across the Southeast New Mexico Plains and western high
terrain. Similarly dry conditions seen yesterday persist today along
with poor overnight recovery ongoing this morning. Between the
increased winds and slightly degraded ERCs after yesterdays`s dry
conditions, critical fire conditions should develop and the Red
Flag Warning appears on track and remains in effect. Similar to
Thursday, there will be a threat of thunderstorms Saturday evening
which may produce gusty and erratic winds along with some
lightning, but this looks to be fairly confined to the far eastern
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos.

Beyond today, lighter winds and good to excellent overnight
recoveries will limit fire weather concerns somewhat until
Wednesday when a shortwave trough arrives and storms return for
the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  82  52  89 /  30   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 49  82  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   60  88  58  92 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            56  84  55  91 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           48  72  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    47  79  48  84 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    43  76  41  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     54  82  53  87 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                   55  81  54  88 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     51  84  53  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Sunday for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
     County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Eastern Culberson
     County.

NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...84