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000
FXUS62 KMFL 122302
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
702 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1211 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Sunny conditions prevail through the short term period behind a weak
frontal passage earlier today. high pressure quickly follows in the
wake of the FROPA and ushers drier air from the north.  North-
northwesterly winds will remain around 10-15mph this afternoon,
helping in keeping afternoon highs in the low-mid 80s.

For Saturday, models intensify and expand the high pressure cell
over the SE CONUS and into the state, with SFL in the southwest
periphery of the high. This will veer sfc winds to a more NE flow
while moderately tightening pressure gradients. Speeds will increase
to the 10-15 mph range with possible gusts to 20 mph at times. This
will again help in keeping afternoon temps in the lower temps across
much of SFL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A very benign pattern will prevail over SFL through the middle of
next week as mid-lvl ridging builds towards the area and high
pressure over the western Atlantic remains the dominant low-lvl
feature of interest. The positioning of the high NE of the area
will support easterly low-lvl flow through essentially the entire
extended period, while very dry air in the vicinity of the
encroaching ridge combined with the northward displacement of the
storm track will keep rain chances near zero as well.

Temperatures, initially near seasonal normals Sun/Mon, will warm
to above normal by mid-week as the ridge builds toward the area.
Given the persistent easterly flow, warmer high temperatures will
be observed over Interior and SW Florida with fairly widespread
maximums in the lower 90s expected Wednesday and beyond, while
the east coast will see highs gradually warm into the mid 80s by
mid-week. Initially comfortable lows in the 50s to low 60s Sunday
AM, will warm back up to the upper 60s and lower 70s by the end
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR will prevail through this period A brief period of variable
winds is expected this evening before winds increase out of the NW
after 04-05Z and then shift to a NE direction between 13-15Z for
the rest of the period. No mention of gusts tomorrow at this
moment due to some uncertainty with that, but sustained winds will
be steady around 10-12kts.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Conditions are gradually improving today in the wake of a frontal
passage, with winds dropping to around 10kt by this afternoon.
However, a surge in winds could result in another round of SCEC
conditions tonight and into Saturday morning. Winds will likely

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1211 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The high risk of rip currents will continue for the Palm beaches
through the rest of the weekend due to a lingering swell. A high
risk of rip currents continues for the Collier beaches today as
well. An elevated risk may also persist for the rest of the Atlantic
beaches as the low-lvl flow shifts northerly/northeasterly and

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A dry airmass is currently filtering into South Florida with RHs
dropping into the 30-40% range over much of the area this
afternoon. Dry conditions will continue on Saturday, particularly
over Interior and SW Florida where minimum RHs below 30% will be
possible (while RHs will be somewhat higher near the east coast
due to onshore winds). RHs will gradually improve Sunday into the
upcoming week, but pockets or near to just below 35% minimum RHs
will remain possible over SW and Interior Florida. Winds will
remain below Red Flag criteria through the period, with 20ft winds
generally 10 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            64  81  65  79 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     60  83  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        63  82  65  81 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        61  80  65  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  63  79  65  78 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  63  79  65  79 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   63  82  65  81 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  60  79  62  79 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       61  80  64  79 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           61  83  60  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069-
     168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ650-
     651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...Redman