National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS66 KMFR 151038
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
338 AM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...Low cloud cover is the predominant condition for
this morning with lingering moisture after this weekend`s showers,
and a weak, weakening cold front making its way across northern
Oregon. The low level moisture may be sufficiently deep, and lift
sufficiently strong for a few drizzly showers at the Coos and
Douglas coast until around 11 AM. The low clouds are expected to
linger longest in the Coquille and Umpqua valleys, into this
afternoon. Otherwise, the trend will be for diminishing cloud
cover during the morning.

Model agreement/forecast confidence is high through Friday with
dry conditions (after the slight chance of coastal showers this
morning) and a warming trend of high temperatures expected. By
Thursday and Friday, highs will be around 5 to 10 degrees above
normal.

The main uncertainty, and likely the most impactful aspect of the
forecast will be the extent of overnight cooling. As is typical
in our spring and fall seasons, there will be a wide range between
our inland low and high temperatures. Particularly on Tuesday
through Thursday mornings, widespread freezing temperatures are
expected to start the day across the east side and over the
mountains. But also, patches of frost are likely in west side
valleys, especially away from city centers.

There is better model agreement this morning in timing the next
cold front across our area on Saturday. This looks to be a
seasonably weak front with the highest chance of light rain for
the coast, Douglas County, and northward. This would likely also
bring some modest cooling, sending highs back to around a few
degrees above normal.

Model differences quickly increase for next week, Day 6 onward, but
a trend toward more active, seasonable weather is likely.

&&

.AVIATION...15/06Z TAFs...Ample cloud cover will linger well into
Monday morning. Conditions are likely to remain low end VFR/MVFR
for areas west of the Cascades, with a mix of IFR/MVFR possible
for areas east of the Cascades where more precipitation has fallen
today. Expect widespread terrain obscurations to also continue
through Monday morning. Lingering cloud cover Monday morning is
expected to clear by late morning/early afternoon and VFR
conditions are expected area wide after 18z-21z. /BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 745 PM Sunday, April 15, 2024...Gusty winds
combined with a westerly swell will maintain steep seas with
conditions hazardous to small craft for all areas beyond 5 nm from
shore through late tonight. Conditions improve for a brief period
through Monday morning as the upper level pattern transitions and a
thermal trough develops by the afternoon. This pattern will bring
another round of gusty north winds, along with steep to very steep
seas, especially south of Cape Blanco.

The thermal trough is expected to peak Tuesday evening into
Wednesday when strong gusty winds are expected to expand north of
Cape Blanco. There is uncertainty as to how far north this
expansion will occur. So while we only have an advisory in place
from Monday morning through Tuesday morning, we do anticipate
additional headlines beyond Tuesday morning as steep to very steep
seas are likely to continue. Gusty north winds will persist into
Thursday, with conditions expected to improve toward the end of the
week. /BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this
     afternoon to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$