542
FXUS66 KMFR 061056
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
356 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing some rather extensive
cloud cover across southern Oregon and northern California this
morning. Meanwhile, radar is indicating some returns in Siskiyou
County as well as a few light showers starting to make their way
inland as another front approaches the area. This front will allow
showers to continue today with a few thunderstorms possible,
largely north of the Oregon/California border. These storms are
expected to be rather run of the mill, but could produce some
breezy winds to 30 mph. In addition, this front will also cause
breezy winds for the Winter Rim area in Lake County, including
Highways 31 and US Highway 395 near Alkali Lake. Am continuing the
Wind Advisory for those areas.

Otherwise, temperatures will start of relatively chilly this
morning. With cloud cover, expect temperatures to not reach
freezing for most of the area, but the Shasta and the Scott
Valleys in Siskiyou County still are showing a high chance (80%)
of reaching freezing. A freeze warning remains in effect for those
locations.

After today, the front will leave the area and showers will
decrease in coverage. Temperatures are expected to warm up as
well. Then, beginning Wednesday into the weekend, a ridge of high
pressure will return to the Pacific northwest. This ridge is
expected to remain in place through next week. This will see a
sense of early summer as temperatures reach 10 to 15 degrees above
normal this time of year. And while it is not in the forecast,
Friday and Saturday could approach 90 degrees for West Side
Valleys. -Schaaf


&&

.AVIATION...06/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected at the
terminals through early parts of this cycle, but an approaching
front may tilt the odds in favor of MVFR. Confidence is highest
(~70%) for North Bend to reach MVFR ceilings, but timing on that is
going to be tough to nail down. That said, all the terminals will be
within a couple thousand feet of MVFR, so low clouds in general are
expected through this cycle. Additionally, light rain showers are
expected through this cycle. The front will also bring breezy
conditions on the eastside which will impact Klamath Falls tomorrow
afternoon.

-Guerrero


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM Monday, May 6, 2024...A front will move
onshore this morning. Gusty southwest winds preceding the front
become west and lower somewhat behind it, but steep seas keep
conditions hazardous to small craft through late this morning. Seas
will transition to moderate west swell this afternoon through midday
Tuesday. A thermal trough will strengthen Tuesday afternoon with
gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas developing, highest
south of Cape Blanco. Wind speeds will peak during Wednesday
afternoon/evening, but gusty northerly winds will persist into
Thursday night. During this stretch (Wed pm-Thu), we could see gale
force winds come to fruition, especially across the southern waters.
As such, we have issued a gale watch for areas from roughly Port
Orford southward. Conditions hazardous to small craft will expand
north of Cape Blanco again Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. The
thermal trough will weaken Friday into next weekend resulting in
weaker north winds and lower seas. -Spilde


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for ORZ031.

CA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this
     morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday
     for PZZ356-376.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
     for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$