Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
736 FXUS62 KMLB 121959 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 359 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Current-Monday...Light returns on KMLB radar earlier today produced a few sprinkles along and north of I-4, and a few traces have been observed at local ASOS sites. High cloud cover has broken up this afternoon, generally clearing from Kissimmee/Melbourne southward. Here, the the east coast sea breeze can be seen propagating inland with scattered cu remaining ahead. Hourly CAM guidance continues to keep conditions mostly dry along the sea breeze boundary, and PoPs remain ~10 percent through the rest of the afternoon. Another wave of upper level moisture moves across the state tonight, rebuilding high cloud cover. A stalled surface boundary near south Florida lifts northward on Monday, and southeast flow around 10-15 mph will aid in increasing low level moisture. Scattered showers and lightning storms return to the forecast tomorrow afternoon with coverage increasing to 40-50 percent. While CAPE is limited, steep low level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km and lift along the sea breeze may allow for a stronger updraft. A dry air mass above 700mb and DCAPE values ~800 J/kg could support strong wind gusts up to 45 mph where stronger storms develop. Morning temperatures start above seasonal values, ranging the upper 60s to low 70s. Afternoon highs then climb into the mid 80s along the coast, warming into the upper 80s/ low 90s across the interior. Increasing moisture will support heat index values in the mid to upper 90s across the interior, nearing 100 in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. Tuesday-Wednesday...Weak mid-level ridging across the Florida peninsula on Tuesday will get pushed eastward out across the Atlantic as a mid-level trough sweeps across the southeastern US and then up towards the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern US. At the surface, the area of low pressure associated with the trough will shift eastward from the Midwest slowly on Tuesday, with increasing moisture locally across the Florida peninsula forecast due to south- southwest winds. PoPs generally remain between 40 to 50 percent, and isolated to scattered storms will be possible thanks to modest instability present (~400-700 J/kg SBCAPE). The low will then reach the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday and lift northeastward Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Locally, the cold front associated with the surface low will move southeastward across the peninsula, leading to increasing rain and storms chances for east central Florida. Model guidance is currently indicating better instability present across the peninsula on Wednesday, so have kept scattered to numerous showers and storms in the forecast Wednesday afternoon. Activity will then gradually diminish into Wednesday night as the front settles across the peninsula. Skies will remain cloudy through the middle of the week thanks to the increased moisture present across east central Florida. This cloud cover will not prevent warm temperatures though. Afternoon highs are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 90s on Tuesday, and into the low 90s to mid 90s on Wednesday. The humidity present also won`t help, with heat indices in the 100 to 105 range possible both Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will remain in the low to mid 70s across a majority of east central Florida, with a few areas north of the Orlando metro potentially dropping into the upper 60s on Wednesday night. Thursday-Sunday...Weak ridging in the mid-levels is forecast to build across the Florida peninsula once again as the trough moves offshore and weakens. The front will remain draped across the Florida peninsula through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as it weakens, with the potential for diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and storms each afternoon across the area thanks to the lingering moisture. PoPs will generally remain between 30 to 50 percent each afternoon through the weekend. Little relief from the heat is forecast through the long term forecast, with afternoon highs climbing into the 90s each day. Overnight lows are forecast to generally remain in the low to mid 70s. For reference, these temperatures are roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year, and some places could even near their record temperatures. Additionally, current guidance conditions to indicate the potential for heat indices reaching the 100 to 105 range late this week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 358 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 The east coast sea breeze continues to move inland this afternoon with east winds forecast to increase to around 10-12 kts behind the boundary. Winds will be slow to diminish after sunset, generally falling around 5-7 kts. East winds veer southeast tomorrow, becoming breezy. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast into the afternoon, and VCSH/VCTS may be added as future TAF packages extend in time. && .MARINE... Issued at 358 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Tonight-Monday...East winds around 10 kts veer southeast overnight. Poor boating conditions develop into Monday afternoon as southeast winds increase to 15-20 kts. Seas of 2-3 ft gradually build to 3-4 ft through the period. Coverage of isolated to scattered lightning storms return across the local waters tomorrow afternoon with coverage ranging 20-40 percent. Tuesday-Friday...Boating conditions are forecast to briefly deteriorate across the local Atlantic waters Tuesday into Wednesday, with south-southwest winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots and seas increasing to 5 to 6 feet across the offshore waters and 3 to 4 feet across the nearshore waters thanks to the approaching cold front. Winds are then forecast to diminish gradually out of the west late Wednesday into Thursday at 10 to 15 knots, with seas falling to 2 to 3 feet. By Friday, winds become southerly at 10 to 15 knots, with seas remaining around 2 feet. Seas will also be somewhat choppy, with a dominant period of 4 to 7 seconds driven primarily by the wind. Scattered showers and isolated to scattered storms will be possible across the local Atlantic waters through the period due to increasing moisture ahead of a cold front on Tuesday, the crossing of the cold front across the waters on Wednesday, and then diurnally- driven development moving offshore Thursday and Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Monday...A wet pattern of scattered afternoon showers and lightning storms returns to the forecast on Monday. Increasing moisture in southeast flow will help min RH values to recover some, only falling into the low to mid 40s across the far interior. Southeast winds increase to 12-15 mph in the afternoon. High temperatures climb slightly above seasonal values ranging the mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s/ low 90s inland. Heat index values are forecast to widely range the 90s west of I-95 with values nearing 100 degrees in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. Very good smoke dispersion is forecast. Tuesday-Friday...Increasing moisture ahead of a cold front will cause minimum RH values to improve from 35 to 45 percent on Tuesday to 40 to 55 percent on Wednesday, with winds forecast to increase out of the south-southwest to 10 to 15 mph. As the front approaches on Wednesday, storm chances are expected to increase across east central Florida, with scattered to numerous showers and storms possible. By Thursday and Friday, minimum RH values are forecast to drop back into the 35 to 45 percent range, with winds reaching 10 to 15 mph each afternoon out of the west-southwest. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible through the remainder of the week due to lingering moisture. Temperatures will remain warm through the week, with afternoon highs remaining in the 90s and heat indices potentially climbing into the 100 to 105 range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 70 85 73 92 / 10 40 30 50 MCO 72 89 73 96 / 0 50 30 40 MLB 73 85 74 91 / 10 40 20 40 VRB 71 87 74 93 / 0 40 20 30 LEE 72 90 73 93 / 0 50 30 40 SFB 71 89 73 95 / 0 50 30 40 ORL 72 89 73 95 / 0 50 30 40 FPR 70 87 74 93 / 0 40 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Law LONG TERM...Tollefsen AVIATION...Law