506
FNUS73 KMPX 041256
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Yellowbank South RX...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
756 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For Yellowbank South RX, Showers have ended and skies have begun to
clear out. We`ll see RH values remain elevated through late morning
before RH settles in the 45 to 55% range by mid afternoon. Scattered
clouds will develop this afternoon, but we`ll likely remain mostly
sunny. Light westerly winds will turn more northwesterly by late
morning with speeds around 5 to 10 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Temperature.........48 at ignition...Max 61.
RH..................80 percent at ignition...Min 44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the northwest
                    9 to 13 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /9200 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /106900 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 18 mph increasing to 17 to 20
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............48  49  50  53  54  57  57  59  60  60  59  58
RH..............80  77  71  61  61  53  53  47  46  44  45  49
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   8   9   10  12  13  13  13  12  12  9   8
20 FT wind gust.10  12  14  15  17  18  18  18  18  17  15  13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.5 2.4 3.9 5.2 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.2 4.8 3.5
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.9   10  13  15  18  18  20  20  18  17  15  13
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Patchy fog after 3
                    am.
Temperature.........Min 39.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (62200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 15 mph shifting to the east
                    around 6 mph early in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning.
Temperature.........Max 69.
RH..................Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 12 mph early in
                    the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (72800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 13 mph shifting to the south 15
                    to 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Hewett
Requested by...Kyle Avesing
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413133.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyle_avesing@fws.gov